Friday, June 11, 2010

Myanmar elections on October 10: US senator
Wed Jun 9, 2:09 pm ET

WASHINGTON (AFP) – US Senator Jim Webb said Wednesday he expected Myanmar to hold elections on October 10 and urged support for the vote despite the military regime's exclusion of the democratic opposition.

Webb is a leading US advocate for engagement with the junta, although he called off a trip to Myanmar this month due to allegations the country was developing nuclear weapons with support from North Korea.

Myanmar plans to hold its first elections in two decades later this year, although the regime has not set an exact date.

"What I'm hearing is that they will take place... on 10-10-10," Webb, a member of President Barack Obama's Democratic Party who represents Virginia, told the Asia Society.

The Obama administration last year initiated dialogue with North Korea but has voiced concern about the elections, ahead of which Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy was forcibly dissolved.

Webb acknowledged that the election was designed to preserve the military regime, but said it was a step forward that the country would allow at least some opposition figures to stand for seats.

"In East Asia, in Southeast Asia, you have to build the future a step at a time," Webb said.

"When's the last time China had an election? When's the last time Vietnam had an election?" he said. "It doesn't mean we don't talk to them, and it doesn't mean we don't try to advance the notions of a fairer society."

Webb's position has upset many Myanmar democracy activists, who believe the election is a way to delegitimize Aung San Suu Kyi.

Her National League for Democracy won the last vote in 1990 but she was never allowed to take office and has spent most of the ensuing years under house arrest.
*****************************************************
US fears for Myanmar refugees ahead of polls
Thu Jun 10, 10:55 am ET

BANGKOK (AFP) – A top US official said Thursday he was "particularly concerned" about the plight of 140,000 vulnerable Myanmar refugees in camps along the Thai border in light of the junta's upcoming polls.

Eric P. Schwartz, US Assistant Secretary of State for Population, Refugees, and Migration, raised his worries in Bangkok after meeting Thai officials and activists ahead of a trip to the border camps on Friday.

The refugees have fled Myanmar's six-decade conflict between the mainly-Buddhist country's junta and the Christian Karen, one of the few ethnic insurgent groups yet to sign a peace deal with the ruling generals.

"I'm particularly concerned about the continued situation of vulnerable Burmese in Thailand, about 140,000 of whom are in camps in the border area," Schwartz said at a press briefing. Burma is Myanmar's former name.

Schwartz said that "continued repression and restrictions" in Myanmar's electoral process, as it had unfolded so far, suggested the polls later this year will "offer little change of conditions within Burma".

"If that does happen, elections will not alter the need of Burmese who fear persecution to have access to a protection outside of Burma and in Thailand and it will be critical for authorities here to continue to permit such refuge," he added.

The United States, which has settled more than 60,000 Myanmar refugees since 2005, has already criticised the regime for effectively forcing the dissolution of the main opposition party led by democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi.

Schwartz said he was "very gratified" that the Thai officials he met "seemed to recognise that it will be conditions on the ground and not the conducting of elections in and of themselves... that will be the key factor in determining whether it's safe for people to return".

In December Thailand defied the United States, European Union and United Nations by forcibly repatriating about 4,500 Hmong people from camps in the country's north back to Laos, despite concerns of persecution on their return.

Schwartz was due to visit Laos after Thailand and discuss the conditions of the returned Hmong.

He said he would also discuss the rights of returnees to leave, especially a group of 158 recognised refugees who were sent back despite firm offers of resettlement in third countries, including the United States.
*****************************************************
US official: Fair Myanmar vote a must for refugees
By GRANT PECK, Associated Press Writer – 2 hrs 2 mins ago


BANGKOK (AP) – Myanmar refugees cannot be expected to return home if the upcoming election in the military-ruled country is not fair, a senior U.S. State Department official said Thursday.

Eric Schwartz said the junta's repression of political opponents and restrictions on the electoral process so far suggest Myanmar's election will lack international legitimacy.

That would mean little change in political conditions and would "not alter the need of Burmese who fear persecution to have access to protection outside of Burma," he said, referring to Myanmar by its former name.

The main opposition party, led by detained Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, is boycotting the polls because it believes the electoral laws are unfair and undemocratic. The party won Myanmar's last election in 1990, but the military junta never allowed it to take power. The junta plans elections this year but the exact date has not been disclosed.

Schwartz, who heads the State Department's Bureau of Population, Refugees and Migration, spoke during a visit to Thailand looking into issues regarding asylum-seekers there from Myanmar and Laos.

About 140,000 Myanmar refugees live in camps along the countries' border. Schwartz said he spoke with Thai authorities who seemed to recognize the importance of allowing them continued safe refuge.

Schwartz will visit one of the border camps Friday before going to Laos, where he will hold talks about ethnic Hmong returnees sent back from Thailand.

Schwartz said he will discuss the thousands of members of the ethnic Hmong minority who fled from Laos to Thailand only to be sent back home again. The Hmong claim they are persecuted by the communist government of Laos, but Thailand claims most are economic migrants.

Last December, Thailand forcibly repatriated some 4,500 Hmong, including more than 150 who were offered resettlement in third countries after the U.N. designated them "persons of concern" with a well-founded fear of persecution if returned to Laos.

Schwartz said he hoped the matter of those offered resettlement "is an issue we can move forward on."

He said the U.S. has a continuing interest in the well-being of those who have returned — many still in holding camps — as well as ways in which Washington can assist the Lao government in supporting the humanitarian needs of those who have gone back.
*****************************************************
People's Daily Online - Myanmar starts sending gas from Mottama offshore gas field to Yangon
13:10, June 10, 2010


Myanmar has started sending natural gas from the Yadana natural gas field in the Mottama offshore area to Yangon through a newly-laid pipeline in a bid to add to local consumption to ease power shortage, an official daily reported Thursday.

The transport of the natural gas began on Tuesday after test- run of the 24-inch completed offshore gas pipeline, said the New Light of Myanmar.

The sending of the gas was launched on the day at the center camp, Daw Nyein, in Ahmar township in Pyapon district and the gas is brought to the gas distribution station of Ywama in Yangon's Insein township, it said.

The overall gas pipeline is made up of 136 kilometer-long onshore and 151 kilometer-long offshore ones, it added.

Myanmar's former capital city of Yangon has long faced abnormal reduced electric power supply as an old pipeline that carries natural gas from the Mottama offshore gas field to drive power plants in the city occurred with leakage.

Power supply to private enterprises in Yangon was temporarily stopped in mid-May to divert some of the electricity for Yangon residents' home use as part of the authorities' provisional measures to ease power shortage in Yangon.

However, the temporary measures of suspending power supply to the small industrial enterprises were resumed in the last week of May except industrial zones.

Myanmar gets a total of 660 megawatts (mw) produced from hydropower and gas power, of which only 330 mw or 50 percent are supplied to Yangon which actually needs 660 mw, according to report.

The serious shortage of power has prolonged for over three months, affecting the daily life of Yangon residents.
*****************************************************
People's Daily Online - Myanmar to expand GSM coverage to Southeast Asian countries
13:09, June 10, 2010


The Myanmar telecommunication authorities will expand GSM phone coverage to Southeast Asian member countries, aimed at providing better GSM phone line services to link the region, the local Myanmar Newsweek reported in this week issue.

The pilot project to link Malaysia, Thailand and Singapore as well as China is underway.

Meanwhile, the authorities has also planned to add 33 more GSM radio stations in the biggest city of Yangon to expand GSM coverage which will be launched by local private companies on competitive tender system, an earlier report said.

At present, GSM mobile phones can be used in 80 towns in the country and the number of them in the whole of Myanmar had reached nearly 500,000 up to May this year.

GSM phones have been extensively used in Myanmar since it was introduced in 2002 after cellular ones in 1993 and the DECT ( Digital Enhanced Cordless Telecommunication) and CDMA in 1997.
*****************************************************
UN News Centre - Top UN official travels to Asia for talks on Myanmar

9 June 2010 – A senior United Nations official arrived in Singapore today for talks with the country’s authorities about the situation in Myanmar.

Vijay Nambiar, who serves as UN Chef de Cabinet, is visiting Asian nations in his capacity as Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon’s Special Adviser on Myanmar.

He arrived in Singapore from New Delhi, where he held talks with Indian officials, having met with Foreign Secretary Nirupama Rao and National Security Adviser Shiv Shankar Menon.

Mr. Nambiar will travel to Beijing on Friday for further discussions with Chinese authorities.

Earlier this year, the Secretary-General called for “fair, transparent and credible elections” in Myanmar in which all citizens – including Nobel Peace Prize laureate and prominent opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi – can take part freely.

The polls are the first to be held in the country in two decades as part of a Government-designed timetable towards greater democratization.

Mr. Ban has also voiced concern over new electoral laws in Myanmar which do not meet UN expectations of what is required for an inclusive political process.

According to media reports, the new laws relate to the registration of political parties and prohibit anyone with a criminal conviction from being a member of an official party.
*****************************************************
The Statesman - Two the junta couldn’t silence
9 June 2010


One is in exile, the other jailed for criticising Myanmar’s dictatorship. Yet the release of a scathing poem shows that artistes are still a thorn in the regime’s side, writes Andrew Buncombe

When Burmese authorities sentenced the popular comedian and artiste Zarganar to spend 59 years in jail, they must have hoped to silence a man known for criticising the junta. Yet, though the man celebrated for his films, plays and poetry was dispatched to a jail far from his family’s home in Rangoon, it appears that life behind bars has not reduced either his creative powers or his willingness to speak out.

In recent weeks, a newly crafted poem ~ brief but powerful ~ has been smuggled out of jail and passed to friends of the 49-year-old artiste. It reads:
It’s lucky my forehead is flat
Since my arm must often rest there
Beneath it shines a light I must invite
From a moon I cannot see
In Myitkyina.

The poem, which hints at the hardships endured by prisoners in Myitkyina jail in the far north of Burma, was received by Zarganar’s friend Htein Lin. The Burmese artist, a former political prisoner who now lives in the UK, not only translated the poem into English with the help of his British wife, but also produced a compelling illustration to accompany his friend’s lines. The striking image suggests his friend at the bars of his jail cell, his head pressed into his forearms. It is set against a backdrop of hands, reaching upwards.

“I met him first in 1984 at university and we became friends. We later worked together,” said Htein Lin. “I spent six-and-a-half years in jail. When I came out from prison I had no place to go. Zarganar gave me the chance to live with him. He also showed me how artists can use computers to help their work... I felt I had to do the illustration.”
Zarganar, who was born into a middle-class, intellectual Rangoon family, first started performing and organising theatre productions when he was a student. In doing so, he was stepping into a long tradition of artistes and comedians in Burma who have used their platforms to gently prod and satirise the authorities. He was so popular that he regularly appeared on television, even though one of his plays, Beggar, poked fun at dictator Ne Win, who died in 2002.

The artist finally fell foul of the authorities and was arrested and jailed when he took part in the massive democracy demonstrations of 1988, starting a long-running game of cat-and-mouse that stretched over the next two decades. He was first banned from putting on theatre shows and then, in 2006, prevented from participating in any artistic productions.

Yet it was the aftermath of 2008’s Cyclone Nargis that led to his current jail sentence. With the government’s response inadequate, Zarganar was one of many Burmese citizens who took it upon themselves to work together to collect and distribute food and other essentials to hundreds of thousands of people in the Irrawaddy Delta whose homes and livelihoods had been destroyed by the storm.

He was arrested after speaking to foreign journalists about the government’s lack of action, telling Irrawaddy magazine that the authorities had tried to prevent groups such as his from collecting aid for those in need.

“At the beginning we took risks, and we had to move forward on our own. Sometimes we had confrontations with the authorities,” he said at the time. “For example, they asked us why we were going on our own without consulting them and wanted us to negotiate with them. They said they couldn’t guarantee our lives.”

Confronted with mounting criticism of their response to a natural disaster that had killed an estimated 135,000 people, the junta jailed dozens of dissidents, journalists and critics. Zarganar was sentenced to 59 years, a term that was subsequently reduced to 35 years. The artiste is now held in Myitkyina jail in Kachin state, around 900 miles from Rangoon.

As with many political prisoners, Zarganar was imprisoned far from his home. Anna Roberts, of the Burma Campaign UK, said it was a systematic policy by the regime that had been stepped up after the 2007 democracy demonstrations.

“It’s part of the punishment policy of the regime,” she said. “The diet and medical facilities are so poor inside the jails that political prisoners in particular depend on their families for extra supplies. The regime has developed the policy of sending political prisoners to remote prisons. It means it is difficult and expensive for families to visit.”

News of the new poem comes as a documentary about Zarganar by the British documentary maker Rex Bloomstein, This Prison Where I Live, is to be premiered later this month at the Munich Film Festival. Mr Bloomstein, whose previous works have examined various human rights issues and the Holocaust, said he met Zarganar in Burma three years ago.

“I found him one of the most remarkable people I have ever filmed. He really is a remarkable man ~ fearless, incorruptible,” said Mr Bloomstein. “He is a wonderful example of the Burmese spirit. This is the way (the junta) is trying to crush that spirit, but they won’t.”

Htein Lin, who was included in a recent project on Burmese political prisoners by the award-winning photographer James Mackay, said he hoped to hear more from his friend, despite his incarceration. The comedian is one of more than 2,100 political prisoners that human rights groups believe are languishing inside Burma’s jails.

The Independent
*****************************************************
The Economist Newspaper | Asia
Myanmar's nuclear ambitions, Secrets will out
A defector’s reports seem credible so far as they go
Jun 10th 2010


RUMOURS that Myanmar is the next recruit to a shady nuclear and missile network that seems to link North Korea, Iran, Pakistan, Syria and possibly others swirl intermittently. The missile link is clearest: in all these cases, including Myanmar’s, North Korea has either sold missiles or helped them build their own. But aside from an agreement in principle in 2007 for Russia to build a small research reactor for Myanmar, there has been little hard evidence of its junta’s nuclear ambitions. The recent defection of a former major in the Burmese army, Sai Thein Win, however, and the documents and photographs he brought with him, appear to confirm Myanmar’s intent, if not yet capacity, to enrich uranium and eventually build a bomb.

Sai Thein Win handed over his evidence to the Democratic Voice of Burma (DVB), an émigré-run broadcaster based in Norway. The material has been analysed by Robert Kelley, an experienced former inspector for the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the UN’s nuclear guardian. His 27-page report has plenty of caveats: Sai Thein Win is a missile expert, not a nuclear boffin, and some of what he reports is hearsay; some drawings are crude at best; some equipment seen in pictures could at a pinch have civilian uses too. But experimental work on lasers that could eventually be used to enrich uranium and other equipment for making uranium metal, a necessary step in bomb-making, heighten suspicion. So do close links between supposedly civilian nuclear officials and the Burmese army’s “nuclear battalion”, officially the Number One Science and Technology Regiment.

All this and other evidence, Mr Kelley’s report concludes, lead to the inescapable conclusion that such work is “for nuclear weapons and not civilian use or nuclear power”. An earlier report, published in January by the Institute for Science and International Security, an independent Washington-based outfit, debunked some of the wilder rumours about Myanmar’s nuclear quest. But it also concluded that foreign companies should treat inquiries from Myanmar no differently from “those from Iran, Pakistan or Syria”. All are known purchasers of illicit nuclear equipment.

Myanmar has only a “Small Quantities Protocol” with the IAEA. This exempts it from regular inspections, on the government’s assurance that it has nothing to inspect. Sharper questions are now likely to be asked. The agency had already been trying to dissuade Myanmar and Russia from the research reactor. Sai Thein Win, who learned missile expertise in Russia, says that since about 2002 hundreds of Burmese scientists have trained in Russian nuclear institutes, including one formerly linked to the Soviet nuclear-weapons programme.

Sai Thein Win offers no new insight into the North Korean link. But Western intelligence agencies watch North Korea’s activities in Myanmar. There have been reports that a company associated with the construction of a secret nuclear reactor in Syria (until it was bombed by Israel in 2007 just before completion) has worked in Myanmar too.
*****************************************************
The Irrawaddy - Thai-Burma Relations through the Thaksin Prism
By SIMON ROUGHNEEN - Thursday, June 10, 2010


BANGKOK — After the crackdown on the two-month-long Redshirt protest in Bangkok, ousted premier Thaksin Shinawatra remains a controversial and polarizing figure in Thai politics. Listed by the Thai courts as a “terrorist” and still running from a 2008 corruption conviction, the former prime minister might be on the wrong side of the law, but he remains on the right side of his millions of supporters.

Adored by Redshirts for his pro-poor economic redistribution, he is seen by some as the man who changed Thai politics and tried to take power from the traditional elites. Opponents dismiss him as a populist in the style of Hugo Chavez, who bought votes with social spending and centralized power around himself, overriding Thailand's 1997 Constitution and playing fast and loose with human rights. Others say he represented and personified a brash nouveau-riche elite who sought to undermine the old school networks at the top of Thailand's political and economic tree.

Thaksin tried to have an impact on the world stage too, and still does, as he flits from Cambodia to Dubai to Montenegro and beyond. Despite dismissing the UN as “not my father” while in office, he and Redshirt leaders called for UN intervention during the recent anti-government rally. Launching his new book “Reinventing Thailand: Thaksin and His Foreign Policy” on Wednesday, Thai academic Pavin Chachavalpongpun said that Thaksin extended the market-oriented foreign policy of previous PM Gen Chatichai Choonhavan (1988-91), undermining the sway of the Democrat Party-oriented old school diplomatic elite, whom he dismissed as “dinosaurs.”

While describing many of Thaksin's foreign policy initiatives as “bold,” Pavin added that these were often “hollow.” Pavin is a former Thai foreign service officer who served under Thaksin and is now a research fellow at Singapore's Institute for Southeast Asian Studies.

Thaksin launched a number of new foreign policy initiatives, famously telling foreign diplomats to act as “CEO Ambassadors,” and pulling Thailand closer to China while dismissing the US “War on Terror.” Pavin says, however, that many of Thaksin's foreign relations gambits were “for personal gain as much as national self-interest,” and noted that Thaksin changed his tune on terrorism after 2004 at the onset of the Malay Muslim rebellion in Thailand's deep south. Pavin summed up Thaksin's foreign relations as an extension of his domestic policy, seeking to piggyback on globalization “to find and open new markets for his grassroots supporters,” and directing ambassadors to focus on trade and investment over democratization and human rights.

Thaksin had a major impact on Thai-Burmese relations upon assuming office, seeing engagement with the junta as a commercial venture first and foremost. Surakiart Sathirathai served as foreign minister during the Thaksin administrations. Speaking at a seminar on Thai foreign relations in February, he said that during the Thai Rak Thai administration, the government “worked to bring Myanmar in from the cold” with Thai diplomacy a key factor in cajoling the Burmese junta into a 2003 announcement that it would draft a new constitution as part of the so-called “seven-step road map to democracy.” However, Burma's 2008 Constitution has been widely-dismissed as a sham, designed to put a civilian facade on continued military rule.

Thaksin's somewhat cavalier, faux-entrepreneurial style of diplomacy as seen elsewhere, came across as little more than unprincipled opportunism in Burma. Thailand fostered new trade and investment links with the junta during Thaksin's rule, with Thaksin opponents saying that these, like many of his foreign policy and trade initiatives, were as much about personal or business interests as anything else. Thaksin's Burma visits led to Shin Corp, the telecoms company once owned by Thaksin’s family, signing a deal with Bagan Cybertech, an Internet service provider run by the son of former prime minister Gen Khin Nyunt. That deal was a factor in the February decision by the Thai courts to seize US $1.4 billion of Thaksin's assets. Khin Nyunt was prime minister of Burma in 2003-04, before being ousted in a purge led by ruling strongman Snr-Gen Than Shwe.
Khin Nyunt was seen as close to Thaksin and slightly more open to dealing with the West than others in the junta.

Speaking to The Irrawaddy, Zoya Phan, the International Coordinator of the Burma Campaign UK, summed up Thaksin's role in Burma as “in favor of supporting military dictatorship for economic reasons rather than promoting human rights and democracy.”

Sharing a 2,400-km border, Thailand and Burma have had a close if somewhat ambivalent relationship down through the years. The Burmese sacking of the old Siamese capital of Ayutthaya in 1767 is remembered as a tragedy in Bangkok, but is celebrated by the Burmese—or at least by the ruling junta in Naypyidaw, which is fond of building statues and monuments to Burmese military icons from the past, cementing its own self-image as the historically rooted guardian of the Burmese nation.

Thai political and military elites might view all this with some bemusement, keen to recall that more recently, Thailand emerged the sole Southeast Asian country to resist Western imperialism as the British and French encroached on either side. In the 1970s, when Burma's military rulers took to socialism, Thailand's US-aligned governments looked on with alarm during the Cold War, fears exacerbated as Communist Vietnam invaded Cambodia, while Laos veered to the left as well.

The junta for its part has at times resented what it perceives as de facto Thai support for ethnic minority insurgents in Burma, though this analysis must be tempered by Thailand's haphazard policy of clamping down on cross-border drug trafficking, which benefits some of the ethnic militias financially. Border skirmishes and cross-border attacks by both country's armies took place in 2002.

However, Thaksin's attempts to replace Indonesia's Suharto and Malaysia's Mahathir as a de facto regional figurehead for Southeast Asia might have backfired. The junta may have taken his references to the ancient “Suvarnabhumi” region as code for Thai political dominance of mainland Southeast Asia, or at least reinforcing views elsewhere that Thailand sees itself as superior to its less well-off neighbors.

Puanthong Pawakapan, an international relations teacher at Chulalongkorn University, said that Thailand does not really have a coherent Burma policy. She said that while the current Abhisit government requests the release of Aung San Suu Kyi and the rest of Burma's political prisoners, and seeks free and fair elections in 2010, it tempers these requests with claims that “engagement” with the junta is the only way forward, stating that “Thailand will not interfere in domestic policy.”

Business and trade links are growing, and likely motivate the Democrat-led government's unwillingness to take a tougher line with the junta, despite tough talk during the party's time in opposition when it lambasted Thaksin for his close ties to the Burmese generals.

According to the Asian Development Bank, Burmese exports to Thailand have more than tripled since 2003 to $3.3 billion in 2008 due mainly to natural gas. Thailand buys about 30 percent of its gas from Burma. About two-thirds of Thailand’s electricity comes from domestic gas supplies and those from its neighbor. Thailand is thought to be the top investor in Burma, according to some analyses. According to the junta, Thailand ranked first among country investors into Burma in the 10 years up to 2008, ahead of Britain and Singapore who apparently take second and third place.

Wassana Mututanond, who is an investment adviser at Thailand’s Board of Investment, said Thailand had invested $7.41 billion in Burma between 1988 and 2009, making it the top investor in Burma in terms of investment value, according to a report on the Thai News Agency website on Friday. A new Thai-Myanmar Business Council was recently established to embellish growing commercial ties.

Might all this be somewhat shortsighted on the part of the Bangkok government? The usual line by successive Thai Governments—both Thaksin-linked and Democrat—is that what happens in Burma is a domestic Burmese issue. However, the Asean Inter-Parliamentary Myanmar Causus, a network of Asean parliamentarians who advocate democratic reform in Burma, has published papers outlining the regional security threat posed by Burma, and its divisive internal politics.

That was before last week's revelations carried by the exiled Burmese news agency Democratic Voice of Burma and based on the testimony of a Tatmadaw defector, that the junta is seeking nuclear weapons and is collaborating with North Korea on this and on conventional weaponry development.

Some members of the ruling Democrat Party take the junta threat more seriously. Speaking before Christmas, Bangkok Governor Sukhumbhand Paribatra said that Burmese military spending could fuel a regional arms race.

He added that the lack of national reconciliation in Burma would mean continued violence and instability, especially in the borderlands where ethnic minorities live. This would lead to more displacement, and, inevitably, Thailand would receive additional refugees.

Zoya Phan, a young Karen woman who fled across the border to Thailand during the 1990s after her home was attacked by Burmese government forces, told The Irrawaddy in an email: “Over the past 25 years, Thailand has earned the respect of the international community by giving shelter to refugees fleeing abuses in Burma. I was one of them fleeing from my home and getting sanctuary in a refugee camp in Thailand.”

But rather than proceed as if the nature of military rule in Burma has no impact beyond Burmese borders, Zoya Phan suggested to The Irrawaddy that if Thailand “wants to see cessation of refugees and migrant workers coming from Burma, what it needs to do is to tackle the root causes of the problem, which is a dictatorship that is responsible for human rights violations against civilians.”
*****************************************************
The Irrawaddy - Naypyidaw's Pyongyang Ploy
By WAI MOE - Thursday, June 10, 2010


International concern about the Burmese junta’s ambition to acquire nuclear weapons with North Korean assistance continues to grow, as experts, journalists and defectors release a steady stream of information suggesting that Naypyidaw is seeking to become Southeast Asia's first nuclear-armed state.

Although many details of the program remain unconfirmed, it is increasingly clear that the regime believes it needs nuclear weapons to ensure its long-term survival. Aung Lin Htut, a high-ranking military intelligence officer who defected in 2005 when he was serving as an attache at the Burmese embassy in Washington, said that the country's top general has long wanted to emulate the example of Pyongyang.

“In 1992 when Gen Than Shwe came to power, he thought that if we followed the North Korean example, we would not need to take account of America, or even care about China,” said Aung Lin Htut in a documentary produced by the Norway-based Democratic Voice of Burma (DVB) and broadcast last week on the Al Jazeera news network.

“In other words, when they have nuclear energy and weapons, others will respect us. They won't dare to bully or occupy Myanmar [Burma]. For example, they won't treat it like they treated Iraq. That is why they follow North Korea.”

Two major considerations—a fear of invasion and a desire for respect—appear to be the key reasons for the Burmese junta's efforts to enter the nuclear club. But Burma's nuclear program is more than just an emotional reaction to perceived “bullying” by the international community; it is also the product of some hard-headed strategic thinking.

After decades of facing international censure for its horrific human rights abuses and suppression of Burma's beleaguered pro-democracy movement, the generals appear to be trying to shift the world's attention away from these issues so that it can have engagement on its own terms.

Although Burma’s nuclear ambition has not yet become a major geopolitical concern, unlike the more advanced programs in North Korea and Iran, officials in the Obama administration, including Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, have been talking about it publicly since last year.

When Clinton traveled to Thailand to attend the regional forum of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) in July 2009, she discussed the Burma-North Korea military relationship with Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva.

“We know that there are also growing concerns about military cooperation between North Korea and Burma, which we take very seriously,” she said at the time. “It would be destabilizing for the region. It would pose a direct threat to Burma’s neighbors. And it is something, as a treaty ally of Thailand, that we are taking very seriously.”

The day after Clinton made these comments, the US delegation met with its Burmese counterparts on the sidelines of the Asean regional forum. The subject of Burma's ties with North Korea was undoubtedly high on the agenda of the meeting.

When US Assistant Secretary of State on East Asian and Pacific Affairs Kurt Campbell made his first visit to Burma in November 2009, he also reportedly raised the issue of Napyidaw-Pyongyang ties in his meetings with junta officials and members of the democratic opposition.

“He discussed not only Burmese political issues, but also regional issues affecting Burma, such as the regime's close ties with North Korea,” said Aye Thar Aung, the secretary of the Committee Representing the People’s Parliament, who met with Campbell during his visit last November and again when he returned a second time in May.

“I suggested that the US should focus not only on geopolitical issues, but also pay attention to democracy, human rights and other issues that impact on people's daily life in Burma,” he said.

However, during Campbell’s second trip to Burma last month, he again raised the issue of Naypyidaw-Pyongyang ties with Burmese junta officials, indicating that this is a major concern for the Obama administration.

In a statement, Campbell said: “We have urged Burma’s senior leadership to abide by its own commitment to fully comply with UN Security Council Resolution 1874 [banning arms trading with North Korea].

Recent developments call into question that commitment.

“I have asked the Burmese leadership to work with the United States and others to put into place a transparent process to assure the international community that Burma is abiding by its international commitments,” he said, adding that if the junta does not cooperate, the US “maintains the right to take independent action within the relevant framework established by the international community.”

Although Burma's military cooperation with North Korea has become a significant concern for the US, human rights, democratization and ethnic issues remain central to Washington's Burma policy, according to recent official statements.

While the US registers its concern over Burma-North Korea ties, China's response—or lack thereof—to recent revelations about Burma's budding nuclear weapons program is also interesting.

So far, China has said nothing about the growing relationship between the two countries on its southwestern and northeastern borders. However, observers of Sino-Burmese relations say that although Beijing is believed to have played a key role in bringing Naypyidaw and Pyongyang together, it may be concerned by evidence that the Burmese regime is trying to acquire weapon of mass destruction.

While China's leaders seem confident they can manage their relationship with the Communist regime in Pyongyang, they are less sure where they stand with the Burmese junta, which is ambivalent at best about its dependence on Beijing for military, economic and diplomatic support, and has shown little consideration for China's concerns about stability along its borders.

“The [Burmese] military government does not always keep China informed of all the important policies and personnel changes within the country. It does sometimes communicate these changes with India, Thailand and Singapore,” wrote Li Chenyang and Lye Liang Fook, Chinese experts on Burma, in an academic report.

They noted that the Burmese generals gave Beijing no advance notice of its plans to oust Prime Minister Gen Khin Nyunt in October 2004 and move the capital to Naypyidaw in November 2005.
*****************************************************
20,000 trees planted for Suu Kyi, 65
Thursday, 10 June 2010 23:01
Phanida

Chiang Mai (Mizzima) – National League for Democracy party young members have started planting more than 20,000 saplings today in states and divisions in honour of opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi’s 65th birthday on June 19.

In tribute to their leader, NLD Youth members plan to grow 66 saplings in each of the 318 townships across the country, except in Kayah State, which has no NLD branch offices. Burmese traditionally plant saplings on birthdays for each year of life up to their age for the coming year: thus the 66 trees for Suu Kyi’s 65th anniversary.

NLD central committee member Phyu Phyu Thin said the campaign to plant 20,998 saplings on June 19 was also a conservation awareness campaign.

Members today planted the shady tree varieties, Padauk, Gangaw, Khayay, rain tree, and Bandar (Indian almond), at their offices, in monastery compounds, on personal land holdings or at pagodas in South Dagon, Hlaing Tharyar and South Okkalapa townships in Rangoon Division.

Suu Kyi will be again forced by the ruling Burmese junta to celebrate her birthday under house arrest as her current 18-month sentence for entertaining uninvited guest, US citizen John Yettaw, is scheduled to end in November.

The remainder of the sentence would be waived if she “stays at her home in discipline”, the government announced recently.

NLD Pegu Township chairman Myat Hla said members would plant 66 gold mohur saplings in Pegu on June 19.

Rangoon-based Forest Resource Environment and Development Association (Freda) vice-chairman U Ohn said the trees should be grown in forests, on mountains and on barren hilltops in a “sweeping manner”, so the trees’ roots can play their part in preserving topsoil.

“Growing trees is good but conservation of standing forests and trees is better,” he said. “Felling a tree and replanting a new tree … can [still] damage the environment.”

“Forests absorb all [most of] the rainfall, which can make the climate comfortable. Depletion of forest leads to erosion, which can make climate change.”

Freda started its tree-growing activities in 1999 and since Cyclone Nargis hit the Irrawaddy Delta its groves reportedly cover 3,000 acres (1,214 hectares).

In 1975, forest covered 60 per cent of Burma’s total area of 656,577 square kilometres. That cover was now just 41 per cent, the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organisation reported last month.
*****************************************************
Commission of inquiry inches closer to realization
Thursday, 10 June 2010 12:46
Mizzima News

(Mizzima) – The formation of a United Nations commission of inquiry into alleged crimes against humanity committed in Burma during the course of the country’s decades long civil war and political standoff has gained a further advocate.

During a June 8, 2010, debate of the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva, Slovakia became the fourth government to support such an inquiry, joining the ranks of Australia, the Czech Republic and United Kingdom.

Rosha Fedor, the Slovak representative, in justifying Bratislava’s decision, told the congress, “[T]he first national elections in Myanmar [Burma] could have served as a window to national reconciliation, respect for human rights, and democracy, but on the contrary, the new electoral law fell far below international standards, seriously undermined the rights of expression, assembly and association, and discriminated on the basis of political opinions.”

Either the Human Rights Council or Security Council may initiate a commission of inquiry, though it is generally assumed China and Russia would automatically oppose any such undertaking at the Security Council level.

On the basis of historical precedence, it can be assumed that a commission of inquiry into matters in Burma would include an investigation into violations of international and human rights law, the determination of whether or not acts of genocide have occurred, the identification of perpetrators of crimes against humanity, and a means of ensuring that those responsible for violations are held accountable.

A commission of inquiry would not, however, have prosecutorial authority, which would instead likely lie with the International Criminal Court following UN recommendation.
Human Rights Watch, advocating for the creation of such a commission, believes a UN commission of inquiry “would potentially have a positive effect in bringing various parties to the negotiations, and potentially spur multilateral peace talks in Burma.”

Supporters of the motion further contend Burma’s generals fear accountability, and that a commission of inquiry would awaken those in authority of the immediate need for action in light of facing criminal prosecution.

However, there is also concern that a commission of inquiry would only serve to push an already highly xenophobic ruling clique into a further state of isolationism, making dialogue and an eventual solution to the crisis that much more difficult to initiate.

In 2004, a commission of inquiry was established to investigate the possibility of crimes against humanity in the Sudanese region of Darfur. While the commission did not support allegations of genocide, it did find evidence of systemic violations of human rights and international law.

Meanwhile, Eileen Chamberlain Donahoe of the United States, during the same session of the Human Rights Council, gave notice that Washington was also considering adding its name to those countries in favor of a commission of inquiry into crimes against humanity committed in Burma.
*****************************************************
DVB News - PM’s party appoints Chinese businessman
By KHIN HNIN HTET
Published: 10 June 2010


The party headed by Burma’s current prime minister, Thein Sein, has appointed a Chinese businessman with close ties to the ruling junta as an election candidate in the country’s northern Kachin state.

The man, known only as Yawmo, is from China’s southern Yunnan province and, according to a local in Kachin state’s Bhamo, is “business partners” with the Burmese government. He will run for the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) in Momauk town, about 30 kilometres from the China border.

“He is Miao [ethnic Chinese minority group] from Yunnan province,” said the local. “He came and settled in Momauk in 1990 and later moved to Hpakant [a jade mining town] where his brothers-in-law already live.”

Election laws announced in February ban foreigners, and spouses of foreigners, from participating. This factor played a key role in forcing the party of opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, who was married to UK-born Michael Aris, to boycott the polls.

But numbers of influential Chinese businessmen close to the government are known to buy Burmese passports and ID cards. Burma has become heavily reliant on China as one of the junta’s principal economic allies; a visit to Naypyidaw by Chinese premier Wen Jiabao last week saw the two countries sign some 15 trade deals.

Burma’s economy has also undergone a significant revamp in recent months, with the government selling off swathes of previously state-owned industry to private businesses, many of whom have close ties to the Burmese junta. It is unclear to what extent Chinese businesses have benefitted from this, but analysts believe that Chinese investment in Burma, at both an entrepreneurial and state level, will continue to rise as Burma’s markets open up.

Many of Burma’s wealthy Chinese elites, including Yawmo, made their fortunes in the country’s lucrative jade mining industry, which is predominantly focused in the north, before moving to Mandalay in central Burma. Now Burma’s second city has an estimated Chinese population of up to 40 percent.

Another USDP candidate in Kachin state has been named as Htun Htun, a Burmese-born entrepreneur who also became rich through jade mining. The choice of candidates by the USDP, which is widely tipped to win what critics deride as a sham election, appears to validate suggestions that businessmen with close ties to the ruling junta will play key roles in the post-election government.

Moreover, the USDP has begun unofficially campaigning in several states and divisions around Burma while the 35 or so other registered parties must wait for official approval from the government before they can begin canvassing.

Ward officials in towns around Kachin and Chin state have reportedly been told by the USDP, which is believed to be an offshoot of the government-proxy organisation, the Union Solidarity and Development Association (USDA), to recruit at least 10 percent of voters as party members.

“They are persuading people that they will get privileges for businesses and travelling – they will be prioritised when buying train, buses and air tickets,” said the Kachin local. “They said that even if a party member breaks the law and gets into trouble, senior authorities can speak in his or her favour and soften [the punishment].”

No comments:

Post a Comment