The Sydney Morning Herald - Burma’s nuclear secrets
August 1, 2009
Is Burma preparing to build a nuclear arsenal? Two years of interviews with defectors have persuaded two Australian investigators, Desmond Ball and Phil Thornton, there is more to the claim than global scepticism suggests.
A FEW years back, a paranoid military regime packed up Burma’s capital and shifted it north a few hundred kilometres. Rangoon, it seems, simply wasn’t safe enough any more. The generals’ new home was to be known as the Abode of Kings; more commonly as Naypyidaw. A city rose from the tropical plains with shiny buildings and slick roadways – a strange priority in a country suffering chronic poverty and a health system at the bottom of world rankings.
Now, a fresh question hangs over the goals of Burmese rulers. Could this junta’s priorities be so skewed as to embark upon construction of a nuclear arsenal? And might it have reached out for help to another paranoid regime, North Korea?
Desmond Ball and Phil Thornton are convinced this is a genuine threat. They have spent two years on the Burmese border, interviewing defectors who claim to know the regime’s plans.
The testimony of two Burmese men in particular has caused Ball and Thornton to confront their own deep scepticism about the claims.
Theirs might seem an unlikely collaboration – Ball, a professor of strategic studies at ANU with a deep interest in nuclear technology, and Thornton, a freelance journalist based in Thailand. But their report on the two defectors’ claims adds to mounting – albeit sketchy – evidence that Burma may be chasing the bomb.
There have been hints Burma aspires to a nuclear program. What is uncertain is the extent and intent. Rumours have swirled around refugee circles outside Burma about secret military installations, tunnels dug into the mountains to hide nuclear facilities, the establishment of a ‘‘nuclear battalion’’ in the army and work done by foreign scientists.
But one defector – known as Moe Jo to protect his identity – gives the claims added weight. He warned of the regime having a handful of bombs ready by 2020.
Moe Jo escaped Burmese army service and fled to Thailand. Ball and Thornton met with him in dingy rooms and safehouses. ‘‘His hands shook and he worried about what price his family would have to pay for his actions,’’ they write. ‘‘Before rejecting his country’s nuclear plans, Moe Jo was an officer with 10 years’ exemplary army service. A former graduate of Burma’s prestigious Defence Services Academy, he specialised in computer science.’’
Moe Joe said the regime sent him to Moscow in 2003 to study engineering. He was in a second batch of trainees to be sent to Russia as part of effort to eventually train 1000 personnel to run Burma’s nuclear program.
Before leaving, he was told he would be assigned to a special nuclear battalion.
‘‘You don’t need 1000 people in the fuel cycle or to run a nuclear reactor,’’ said Moe Joe. ‘‘It’s obvious there is much more going on.’’
We knew Russia agreed in principle to sell Burma a small nuclear plant – a light water reactor – and to train about 300 Burmese scientists to run the site. The stated reason is for research purposes, specifically to produce medical isotopes.
In dispute is whether the Russian reactor would be large enough to be diverted to produce enriched uranium or plutonium for a nuclear weapon. Usually a heavy water reactor is needed to achieve this, but perhaps not with North Korean help. Ball and Thornton write: ‘‘As North Korea has shown with their [light water] reactor, it may be slow and more complex, but it is capable.’’
Moe Jo alleged a second, secret reactor of about the same size as the Russian plant had been built at complex called Naung Laing. He said that the army planned a plutonium reprocessing system there and that Russian experts were on site to show how it was done. Part of the Burmese army’s nuclear battalion was stationed in a local village to work on a weapon. He said that an operations area was buried in the nearby Setkhaya Mountains, a set-up including engineers, artillery and communications to act as command and control centre for the nuclear weapons program.
‘‘In the event that the testimonies of the defectors are proved, the alleged ‘secret’ reactor could be capable of being operational and producing a bomb a year, every year, after 2014,’’ write Ball and Thornton.
Claims of this type have stirred serious official concerns. The US Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, journeyed to Thailand for a regional security meeting last month and directly raised the issue. ‘‘We know that there are also growing concerns about military co-operation between North Korea and Burma, which we take very seriously,’’ she said.
The unease escalated when a North Korean freighter, the Kang Nam I, steamed towards Burma last month carrying undisclosed cargo. A South Korean intelligence expert, quoted anonymously, claimed satellite imagery showed the ship was part of clandestine nuclear transfer and also carried long-range missiles. Shadowed by the US Navy, the vessel eventually turned around and returned home.
Japanese police also recently caught a North Korean and two Japanese nationals allegedly trying to export a magnetic measuring device to Burma that could be used to develop missiles.
But it was what Clinton said during a television interview in Bangkok the next day that raised most eyebrows. For the first time, a senior White House official openly speculated on the prospect of nuclear co-operation between Burma and North Korea.
Clinton: ‘‘We worry about the transfer of nuclear technology and other dangerous weapons.’’
Question: ‘‘From North Korea, you mean?’’
Clinton: ‘‘We do, from North Korea, yes.’’
Q: ‘‘To Burma?’’
Clinton: ‘‘To Burma, yes.’’
Q: ‘‘So you’re concerned about the tie – the closer ties between North Korea and Burma?’’
Clinton: ‘‘Yes, yes.’’
But there are many doubts over how far Burma’s military regime has advanced its nuclear aspiration. Ball and Thornton say a regional security officer told them the Naung Laing operation was a decoy to distract people from the true site of the reactor.
‘‘Before it was a heavily guarded ‘no go-zone’. Now you can drive right up to the buildings. Villagers are allowed to grow crops again.’’ The security officer said the Russian-supplied reactor was located in the Myaing area.
To add to the confusion, there are doubts over the existence of the Russian reactor. ‘‘I’m sure the Russian reactor has not been built already,’’ says Mark Fitzpatrick, a senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies and a Burma watcher over most of the past decade. He will soon have a book published on nuclear plans across South-East Asia.
He sees ‘‘nothing alarming’’ in the prospective Russian deal – Russia is a signatory to the nuclear non-proliferation treaty which governs the export of civilian nuclear technology – and doubts Moscow would hide a reactor. Nor has the International Atomic Energy Agency raised questions about Burma’s nuclear ambitions.
But Fitzpatrick is sceptical about the stated reasons offered by Burma’s rulers to explain their interest in nuclear technology, whether for research or power generation.
‘‘The most logical explanation for this interest in research is a prestige factor,’’ he says. Burma wants to demonstrate a level of technology expertise and perhaps also deliberately raise doubts over its nuclear capability. Having the bomb, after all, is a power military deterrent against foreign attack.’’
Of the defectors’ claims, he says: ‘‘I’ve heard these reports and I pay attention to them, and they shouldn’t be dismissed out of hand.’’ North Korea is willing to sell anything to anyone, he says, and points to recent evidence that Pyongyang secretly sold a nuclear reactor to Syria.
Ball and Thornton add to the mystery by reporting the testimony of another defector they call Tin Min. He claimed to have worked as a bookkeeper for a tycoon closely linked to the Burmese military regime, whose company had supposedly organised nuclear contracts with Russia and North Korea. The deal with North Korea on nuclear co-operation supposedly dates back nine years, covering construction and maintenance of nuclear facilities.
‘‘Tin Min spoke excellent English and presented his reports to us with a touch of self-importance,’’ write Ball and Thornton. ‘‘Tin Min had good reason to know what it was like to feel important; before defecting, he had scaled the heights of his country’s high society and had reaped the benefits of that position.’’
Tin Min dismissed the regime’s rationale for requiring nuclear technology. ‘‘They say it’s to produce medical isotopes for health purposes in hospitals. How many hospitals in Burma have nuclear science? Burma can barely get electricity up and running. It’s a nonsense.’’
He claimed his boss once told him of the regime’s nuclear dreams. ‘‘They’re aware they cannot compete with Thailand with conventional weapons. They want to play power like North Korea. They hope to combine the nuclear and air defence missiles.’’ He said the nuclear program was known as UF6 Project and was run by the senior general Maung Aye. Ball and Thornton conclude the nuclear co-operation is based on a trade of locally refined uranium from Burma to North Korea in return for technological expertise.
Tin Min claimed his boss controlled much of the shipping in and out of Burma and could organise the transport of equipment to nuclear sites from the port at Rangoon. ‘‘He arranges for army trucks to pick up the containers of equipment from the North Korean boats that arrive in Rangoon and transport them at night by highway to the river or direct to the sites.’’
He also claimed to have paid a construction company in about 2004 to build a tunnel in a mountain at Naung Laing wide enough for two large trucks to pass each other.
But his story cannot be further tested. Tin Min died late last year.
There are obvious dangers of relying on the testimony of ‘‘defectors’’. The people giving evidence may have ulterior motives, as Ball and Thornton recognise, and the regime is not shy at disseminating false information.
Andrew Selth from Griffith University, a former senior intelligence analyst and an experienced Burma watcher, remains suspicious. ‘‘Understandably,’’ he recently wrote for the Lowy Institute, ‘‘foreign officials looking at these matters are being very cautious. No one wants a repetition of the mistakes which preceded the last Iraq war, either in underestimating a country’s capabilities, or by giving too much credibility to a few untested intelligence sources.
‘‘There has always been a lot of smoke surrounding Burma’s nuclear ambitions. Over the past year or so, the amount of smoke has increased, but still no one seems to know whether or not it hides a real fire.’’
Concern is not going away, however. The most recent edition of US Foreign Policy magazine compared claims surrounding Burma’s nuclear program to 1950s leaks about Israel having a secret nuclear site in the desert. Similar doubts held for claims about India and Pakistan. All three countries have since tested the bomb.
Ball and Thornton are convinced the world must face up to some uncomfortable possibilities. ‘‘According to all the milestones identified by the defectors, Burma’s nuclear program is on schedule. It is feasible and achievable. Unfortunately, it is not as bizarre or ridiculous as many people would like to think. Burma’s regional neighbours need to watch carefully.’’
August 1, 2009
Is Burma preparing to build a nuclear arsenal? Two years of interviews with defectors have persuaded two Australian investigators, Desmond Ball and Phil Thornton, there is more to the claim than global scepticism suggests.
A FEW years back, a paranoid military regime packed up Burma’s capital and shifted it north a few hundred kilometres. Rangoon, it seems, simply wasn’t safe enough any more. The generals’ new home was to be known as the Abode of Kings; more commonly as Naypyidaw. A city rose from the tropical plains with shiny buildings and slick roadways – a strange priority in a country suffering chronic poverty and a health system at the bottom of world rankings.
Now, a fresh question hangs over the goals of Burmese rulers. Could this junta’s priorities be so skewed as to embark upon construction of a nuclear arsenal? And might it have reached out for help to another paranoid regime, North Korea?
Desmond Ball and Phil Thornton are convinced this is a genuine threat. They have spent two years on the Burmese border, interviewing defectors who claim to know the regime’s plans.
The testimony of two Burmese men in particular has caused Ball and Thornton to confront their own deep scepticism about the claims.
Theirs might seem an unlikely collaboration – Ball, a professor of strategic studies at ANU with a deep interest in nuclear technology, and Thornton, a freelance journalist based in Thailand. But their report on the two defectors’ claims adds to mounting – albeit sketchy – evidence that Burma may be chasing the bomb.
There have been hints Burma aspires to a nuclear program. What is uncertain is the extent and intent. Rumours have swirled around refugee circles outside Burma about secret military installations, tunnels dug into the mountains to hide nuclear facilities, the establishment of a ‘‘nuclear battalion’’ in the army and work done by foreign scientists.
But one defector – known as Moe Jo to protect his identity – gives the claims added weight. He warned of the regime having a handful of bombs ready by 2020.
Moe Jo escaped Burmese army service and fled to Thailand. Ball and Thornton met with him in dingy rooms and safehouses. ‘‘His hands shook and he worried about what price his family would have to pay for his actions,’’ they write. ‘‘Before rejecting his country’s nuclear plans, Moe Jo was an officer with 10 years’ exemplary army service. A former graduate of Burma’s prestigious Defence Services Academy, he specialised in computer science.’’
Moe Joe said the regime sent him to Moscow in 2003 to study engineering. He was in a second batch of trainees to be sent to Russia as part of effort to eventually train 1000 personnel to run Burma’s nuclear program.
Before leaving, he was told he would be assigned to a special nuclear battalion.
‘‘You don’t need 1000 people in the fuel cycle or to run a nuclear reactor,’’ said Moe Joe. ‘‘It’s obvious there is much more going on.’’
We knew Russia agreed in principle to sell Burma a small nuclear plant – a light water reactor – and to train about 300 Burmese scientists to run the site. The stated reason is for research purposes, specifically to produce medical isotopes.
In dispute is whether the Russian reactor would be large enough to be diverted to produce enriched uranium or plutonium for a nuclear weapon. Usually a heavy water reactor is needed to achieve this, but perhaps not with North Korean help. Ball and Thornton write: ‘‘As North Korea has shown with their [light water] reactor, it may be slow and more complex, but it is capable.’’
Moe Jo alleged a second, secret reactor of about the same size as the Russian plant had been built at complex called Naung Laing. He said that the army planned a plutonium reprocessing system there and that Russian experts were on site to show how it was done. Part of the Burmese army’s nuclear battalion was stationed in a local village to work on a weapon. He said that an operations area was buried in the nearby Setkhaya Mountains, a set-up including engineers, artillery and communications to act as command and control centre for the nuclear weapons program.
‘‘In the event that the testimonies of the defectors are proved, the alleged ‘secret’ reactor could be capable of being operational and producing a bomb a year, every year, after 2014,’’ write Ball and Thornton.
Claims of this type have stirred serious official concerns. The US Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, journeyed to Thailand for a regional security meeting last month and directly raised the issue. ‘‘We know that there are also growing concerns about military co-operation between North Korea and Burma, which we take very seriously,’’ she said.
The unease escalated when a North Korean freighter, the Kang Nam I, steamed towards Burma last month carrying undisclosed cargo. A South Korean intelligence expert, quoted anonymously, claimed satellite imagery showed the ship was part of clandestine nuclear transfer and also carried long-range missiles. Shadowed by the US Navy, the vessel eventually turned around and returned home.
Japanese police also recently caught a North Korean and two Japanese nationals allegedly trying to export a magnetic measuring device to Burma that could be used to develop missiles.
But it was what Clinton said during a television interview in Bangkok the next day that raised most eyebrows. For the first time, a senior White House official openly speculated on the prospect of nuclear co-operation between Burma and North Korea.
Clinton: ‘‘We worry about the transfer of nuclear technology and other dangerous weapons.’’
Question: ‘‘From North Korea, you mean?’’
Clinton: ‘‘We do, from North Korea, yes.’’
Q: ‘‘To Burma?’’
Clinton: ‘‘To Burma, yes.’’
Q: ‘‘So you’re concerned about the tie – the closer ties between North Korea and Burma?’’
Clinton: ‘‘Yes, yes.’’
But there are many doubts over how far Burma’s military regime has advanced its nuclear aspiration. Ball and Thornton say a regional security officer told them the Naung Laing operation was a decoy to distract people from the true site of the reactor.
‘‘Before it was a heavily guarded ‘no go-zone’. Now you can drive right up to the buildings. Villagers are allowed to grow crops again.’’ The security officer said the Russian-supplied reactor was located in the Myaing area.
To add to the confusion, there are doubts over the existence of the Russian reactor. ‘‘I’m sure the Russian reactor has not been built already,’’ says Mark Fitzpatrick, a senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies and a Burma watcher over most of the past decade. He will soon have a book published on nuclear plans across South-East Asia.
He sees ‘‘nothing alarming’’ in the prospective Russian deal – Russia is a signatory to the nuclear non-proliferation treaty which governs the export of civilian nuclear technology – and doubts Moscow would hide a reactor. Nor has the International Atomic Energy Agency raised questions about Burma’s nuclear ambitions.
But Fitzpatrick is sceptical about the stated reasons offered by Burma’s rulers to explain their interest in nuclear technology, whether for research or power generation.
‘‘The most logical explanation for this interest in research is a prestige factor,’’ he says. Burma wants to demonstrate a level of technology expertise and perhaps also deliberately raise doubts over its nuclear capability. Having the bomb, after all, is a power military deterrent against foreign attack.’’
Of the defectors’ claims, he says: ‘‘I’ve heard these reports and I pay attention to them, and they shouldn’t be dismissed out of hand.’’ North Korea is willing to sell anything to anyone, he says, and points to recent evidence that Pyongyang secretly sold a nuclear reactor to Syria.
Ball and Thornton add to the mystery by reporting the testimony of another defector they call Tin Min. He claimed to have worked as a bookkeeper for a tycoon closely linked to the Burmese military regime, whose company had supposedly organised nuclear contracts with Russia and North Korea. The deal with North Korea on nuclear co-operation supposedly dates back nine years, covering construction and maintenance of nuclear facilities.
‘‘Tin Min spoke excellent English and presented his reports to us with a touch of self-importance,’’ write Ball and Thornton. ‘‘Tin Min had good reason to know what it was like to feel important; before defecting, he had scaled the heights of his country’s high society and had reaped the benefits of that position.’’
Tin Min dismissed the regime’s rationale for requiring nuclear technology. ‘‘They say it’s to produce medical isotopes for health purposes in hospitals. How many hospitals in Burma have nuclear science? Burma can barely get electricity up and running. It’s a nonsense.’’
He claimed his boss once told him of the regime’s nuclear dreams. ‘‘They’re aware they cannot compete with Thailand with conventional weapons. They want to play power like North Korea. They hope to combine the nuclear and air defence missiles.’’ He said the nuclear program was known as UF6 Project and was run by the senior general Maung Aye. Ball and Thornton conclude the nuclear co-operation is based on a trade of locally refined uranium from Burma to North Korea in return for technological expertise.
Tin Min claimed his boss controlled much of the shipping in and out of Burma and could organise the transport of equipment to nuclear sites from the port at Rangoon. ‘‘He arranges for army trucks to pick up the containers of equipment from the North Korean boats that arrive in Rangoon and transport them at night by highway to the river or direct to the sites.’’
He also claimed to have paid a construction company in about 2004 to build a tunnel in a mountain at Naung Laing wide enough for two large trucks to pass each other.
But his story cannot be further tested. Tin Min died late last year.
There are obvious dangers of relying on the testimony of ‘‘defectors’’. The people giving evidence may have ulterior motives, as Ball and Thornton recognise, and the regime is not shy at disseminating false information.
Andrew Selth from Griffith University, a former senior intelligence analyst and an experienced Burma watcher, remains suspicious. ‘‘Understandably,’’ he recently wrote for the Lowy Institute, ‘‘foreign officials looking at these matters are being very cautious. No one wants a repetition of the mistakes which preceded the last Iraq war, either in underestimating a country’s capabilities, or by giving too much credibility to a few untested intelligence sources.
‘‘There has always been a lot of smoke surrounding Burma’s nuclear ambitions. Over the past year or so, the amount of smoke has increased, but still no one seems to know whether or not it hides a real fire.’’
Concern is not going away, however. The most recent edition of US Foreign Policy magazine compared claims surrounding Burma’s nuclear program to 1950s leaks about Israel having a secret nuclear site in the desert. Similar doubts held for claims about India and Pakistan. All three countries have since tested the bomb.
Ball and Thornton are convinced the world must face up to some uncomfortable possibilities. ‘‘According to all the milestones identified by the defectors, Burma’s nuclear program is on schedule. It is feasible and achievable. Unfortunately, it is not as bizarre or ridiculous as many people would like to think. Burma’s regional neighbours need to watch carefully.’’
*****************************************************
Myanmar court delays Suu Kyi verdict until Aug. 11
1 hr 54 mins ago
YANGON, Myanmar (AP) – The Myanmar court scheduled to deliver a verdict in the high-profile trial of opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi said Friday it was not yet ready to make a decision and adjourned until Aug. 11, diplomats said.
Suu Kyi rose to her feet after the judge's announcement, turned to foreign diplomats in the courtroom and said jokingly, "I apologize for giving you more work," a Western diplomat said on condition of anonymity, citing protocol.
The 64-year-old Nobel Peace Prize laureate is charged with violating the terms of her house arrest by harboring an American man who swam to her house uninvited. She faces up to five years in prison.
Her trial has drawn international condemnation since it opened May 18. Critics have accused the military government of using the bizarre incident as a pretext to keeping Suu Kyi behind bars through the country's planned elections next year.
Friday's hearing lasted only a few minutes.
"The presiding judge walked into the courtroom and said the verdict will be postponed until Aug. 11 because the court is not ready to give the ruling," a foreign diplomat who attended the hearing told The Associated Press. The court was closed to journalists.
Another diplomat said the judge added that the ruling required "further deliberation." The diplomats interviewed asked not to be named because of the sensitivity surrounding the trial.
Security was heightened Friday ahead of the expected verdict, with teams of riot police stationed nearby. All roads leading to Yangon's Insein prison — where the trial is being held in a court inside the compound — were blocked by barbed-wire barricades.
Suu Kyi's lawyers had said they were cautiously optimistic about the outcome.
"The charges against our client are not strong and we are confident that we will win if things go according to the law," lawyer Nyan Win said early Friday as he entered the prison.
A day earlier he said that Suu Kyi was "preparing for the worst" and stocking up on medicine and reading material in case she is sent to prison. Suu Kyi provided lawyers with a list of requested books, which Nyan Win said he delivered to her, including novels and historical biographies in English, French-language history books and others in Burmese on Buddhism.
Suu Kyi is charged with violating the terms of her lengthy house arrest when an American intruder swam across a lake and spent two nights at her home in May.
She is widely expected to be convicted, although there has been speculation she may stay under house arrest rather than serve time in jail. Suu Kyi has been in detention for 14 of the last 20 years, since leading a pro-democracy uprising in 1988 that was crushed by Myanmar's military junta.
Verdicts were also postponed for the uninvited American visitor, John Yettaw, 53, and two women who lived with Suu Kyi — Khin Khin Win and her daughter Win Ma Ma — and face charges similar to hers. Yettaw is charged as an abettor in violating her house arrest and faces up to five years in prison.
Suu Kyi's lawyers have not contested the basic facts of the case but argued that the law used by authorities against her is invalid because it applies to a constitution abolished two decades ago. They also say that government security guards stationed outside Suu Kyi's compound should be held responsible for any intrusion.
U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon told reporters in New York on Wednesday that he hopes the government will respond to his repeated appeals to free Suu Kyi.
But neither outside pressure nor the possibility of better economic and political ties with the West has deterred the ruling junta, which appears determined to find Suu Kyi out of the public eye.
Suu Kyi's party won national elections in 1990, but Myanmar's generals refused to relinquish power. Next year's promised elections will be the first in two decades.
1 hr 54 mins ago
YANGON, Myanmar (AP) – The Myanmar court scheduled to deliver a verdict in the high-profile trial of opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi said Friday it was not yet ready to make a decision and adjourned until Aug. 11, diplomats said.
Suu Kyi rose to her feet after the judge's announcement, turned to foreign diplomats in the courtroom and said jokingly, "I apologize for giving you more work," a Western diplomat said on condition of anonymity, citing protocol.
The 64-year-old Nobel Peace Prize laureate is charged with violating the terms of her house arrest by harboring an American man who swam to her house uninvited. She faces up to five years in prison.
Her trial has drawn international condemnation since it opened May 18. Critics have accused the military government of using the bizarre incident as a pretext to keeping Suu Kyi behind bars through the country's planned elections next year.
Friday's hearing lasted only a few minutes.
"The presiding judge walked into the courtroom and said the verdict will be postponed until Aug. 11 because the court is not ready to give the ruling," a foreign diplomat who attended the hearing told The Associated Press. The court was closed to journalists.
Another diplomat said the judge added that the ruling required "further deliberation." The diplomats interviewed asked not to be named because of the sensitivity surrounding the trial.
Security was heightened Friday ahead of the expected verdict, with teams of riot police stationed nearby. All roads leading to Yangon's Insein prison — where the trial is being held in a court inside the compound — were blocked by barbed-wire barricades.
Suu Kyi's lawyers had said they were cautiously optimistic about the outcome.
"The charges against our client are not strong and we are confident that we will win if things go according to the law," lawyer Nyan Win said early Friday as he entered the prison.
A day earlier he said that Suu Kyi was "preparing for the worst" and stocking up on medicine and reading material in case she is sent to prison. Suu Kyi provided lawyers with a list of requested books, which Nyan Win said he delivered to her, including novels and historical biographies in English, French-language history books and others in Burmese on Buddhism.
Suu Kyi is charged with violating the terms of her lengthy house arrest when an American intruder swam across a lake and spent two nights at her home in May.
She is widely expected to be convicted, although there has been speculation she may stay under house arrest rather than serve time in jail. Suu Kyi has been in detention for 14 of the last 20 years, since leading a pro-democracy uprising in 1988 that was crushed by Myanmar's military junta.
Verdicts were also postponed for the uninvited American visitor, John Yettaw, 53, and two women who lived with Suu Kyi — Khin Khin Win and her daughter Win Ma Ma — and face charges similar to hers. Yettaw is charged as an abettor in violating her house arrest and faces up to five years in prison.
Suu Kyi's lawyers have not contested the basic facts of the case but argued that the law used by authorities against her is invalid because it applies to a constitution abolished two decades ago. They also say that government security guards stationed outside Suu Kyi's compound should be held responsible for any intrusion.
U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon told reporters in New York on Wednesday that he hopes the government will respond to his repeated appeals to free Suu Kyi.
But neither outside pressure nor the possibility of better economic and political ties with the West has deterred the ruling junta, which appears determined to find Suu Kyi out of the public eye.
Suu Kyi's party won national elections in 1990, but Myanmar's generals refused to relinquish power. Next year's promised elections will be the first in two decades.
*****************************************************
Myanmar police ring court ahead of Suu Kyi verdict
Thu Jul 30, 10:44 pm ET
YANGON, Myanmar (AP) – Riot police sealed off the court trying Nobel Peace Prize laureate Aung San Suu Kyi in military-run Myanmar ahead of Friday's verdict that could send the frail icon of democracy to prison for up to five years.
The 64-year-old opposition leader is charged with violating the terms of her house arrest by harboring an American man who swam to her house uninvited.
Security was heightened for the high-profile verdict, with teams of riot police stationed nearby and all roads leading to the prison blocked by barbed-wire barricades.
Suu Kyi's lawyers remained cautiously hopeful as they headed into the tightly guarded court at Insein Prison.
"The charges against our client are not strong and we are confident that we will win if things go according to the law," said lawyer Nyan Win, who said a day earlier that Suu Kyi was "preparing for the worst" and stocking up on medicine and reading material in case she is sent to prison.
Suu Kyi is charged with violating the terms of her lengthy house arrest when an American intruder swam across a lake and spent two nights at her home in May. Her trial has drawn international condemnation since it opened May 18 and many critics see it as a pretext to keeping her behind bars through the country's planned elections next year.
She is widely expected to be convicted, although there has been speculation she may stay under house arrest rather than serve time in jail. Suu Kyi has been in detention for 14 of the last 20 years, since leading a pro-democracy uprising in 1988 that was crushed by Myanmar's military junta.
A verdict will also be given Friday for the uninvited American visitor, John Yettaw, 53, and two women who lived with Suu Kyi — Khin Khin Win and her daughter Win Ma Ma — and face charges similar to hers. Yettaw is charged as an abettor in violating her house arrest and faces up to five years in prison.
If convicted, the charismatic mother of two will return to an isolated life, her days filled with meditation, reading books and getting the occasional censored letters. Knowing she could be put behind bars, Suu Kyi provided her lawyers with a list of requested items, which they were able to bring her, Nyan Win said.
"She is collecting some medicine and many books in English, French and Burmese," he said.
Suu Kyi's lawyers have not contested the basic facts of the case but argued that the law used by authorities against her is invalid because it applies to a constitution abolished two decades ago. They also say that government security guards stationed outside Suu Kyi's compound should be held responsible for any intrusion.
U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon told reporters in New York on Wednesday that he hopes the government will respond to his repeated appeals to free Suu Kyi.
But neither outside pressure nor the possibility of better economic and political ties with the West has deterred the ruling junta, which appears determined to find Suu Kyi out of the public eye.
Suu Kyi's party won national elections in 1990, but Myanmar's generals refused to relinquish power. Next year's promised elections will be the first in two decades.
Thu Jul 30, 10:44 pm ET
YANGON, Myanmar (AP) – Riot police sealed off the court trying Nobel Peace Prize laureate Aung San Suu Kyi in military-run Myanmar ahead of Friday's verdict that could send the frail icon of democracy to prison for up to five years.
The 64-year-old opposition leader is charged with violating the terms of her house arrest by harboring an American man who swam to her house uninvited.
Security was heightened for the high-profile verdict, with teams of riot police stationed nearby and all roads leading to the prison blocked by barbed-wire barricades.
Suu Kyi's lawyers remained cautiously hopeful as they headed into the tightly guarded court at Insein Prison.
"The charges against our client are not strong and we are confident that we will win if things go according to the law," said lawyer Nyan Win, who said a day earlier that Suu Kyi was "preparing for the worst" and stocking up on medicine and reading material in case she is sent to prison.
Suu Kyi is charged with violating the terms of her lengthy house arrest when an American intruder swam across a lake and spent two nights at her home in May. Her trial has drawn international condemnation since it opened May 18 and many critics see it as a pretext to keeping her behind bars through the country's planned elections next year.
She is widely expected to be convicted, although there has been speculation she may stay under house arrest rather than serve time in jail. Suu Kyi has been in detention for 14 of the last 20 years, since leading a pro-democracy uprising in 1988 that was crushed by Myanmar's military junta.
A verdict will also be given Friday for the uninvited American visitor, John Yettaw, 53, and two women who lived with Suu Kyi — Khin Khin Win and her daughter Win Ma Ma — and face charges similar to hers. Yettaw is charged as an abettor in violating her house arrest and faces up to five years in prison.
If convicted, the charismatic mother of two will return to an isolated life, her days filled with meditation, reading books and getting the occasional censored letters. Knowing she could be put behind bars, Suu Kyi provided her lawyers with a list of requested items, which they were able to bring her, Nyan Win said.
"She is collecting some medicine and many books in English, French and Burmese," he said.
Suu Kyi's lawyers have not contested the basic facts of the case but argued that the law used by authorities against her is invalid because it applies to a constitution abolished two decades ago. They also say that government security guards stationed outside Suu Kyi's compound should be held responsible for any intrusion.
U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon told reporters in New York on Wednesday that he hopes the government will respond to his repeated appeals to free Suu Kyi.
But neither outside pressure nor the possibility of better economic and political ties with the West has deterred the ruling junta, which appears determined to find Suu Kyi out of the public eye.
Suu Kyi's party won national elections in 1990, but Myanmar's generals refused to relinquish power. Next year's promised elections will be the first in two decades.
*****************************************************
Obama, Arroyo show solidarity over Myanmar
By Jeff Mason – Thu Jul 30, 6:51 pm ET
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. President Barack Obama and Philippine President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo showed solidarity over Myanmar on Thursday before an expected verdict in the widely condemned trial of opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi.
Arroyo, who Obama at the White House, said her country backed Washington's strong condemnation of the human rights situation in the former Burma and in North Korea.
"We stand ... behind the United States on the position that it has taken with regard to Burma and with regard to North Korea's nuclear adventurism," Arroyo told reporters with Obama in the Oval Office.
Obama, who this week renewed sanctions on Myanmar's ruling junta, thanked Arroyo for her support on U.S. policies in the region.
"We are very grateful (for) the strong voice that the Philippines has provided in dealing with issues in Asia ranging from the human rights violations that have for too long existed in Burma to the problems that we're seeing with respect to nuclear proliferation in North Korea," he said.
"Although the Philippines is not the largest of countries, it, using a phrase from boxing, punches above its weight in the international arena."
A verdict in the trial of Suu Kyi is expected on Friday, a court official said, after her lawyers wrapped up their final arguments in the case against her on security charges.
A guilty verdict is widely expected. The courts have in the past been known to favor the junta.
Suu Kyi, 64, is on trial for allowing American intruder John Yettaw to stay at her Yangon home in May, when she was under house arrest. He had evaded security to swim across a lake to the house.
Suu Kyi faces five years in prison if convicted.
Neither Obama nor Arroyo specifically mentioned the imprisoned Nobel Peace Prize winner in their remarks.
By Jeff Mason – Thu Jul 30, 6:51 pm ET
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. President Barack Obama and Philippine President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo showed solidarity over Myanmar on Thursday before an expected verdict in the widely condemned trial of opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi.
Arroyo, who Obama at the White House, said her country backed Washington's strong condemnation of the human rights situation in the former Burma and in North Korea.
"We stand ... behind the United States on the position that it has taken with regard to Burma and with regard to North Korea's nuclear adventurism," Arroyo told reporters with Obama in the Oval Office.
Obama, who this week renewed sanctions on Myanmar's ruling junta, thanked Arroyo for her support on U.S. policies in the region.
"We are very grateful (for) the strong voice that the Philippines has provided in dealing with issues in Asia ranging from the human rights violations that have for too long existed in Burma to the problems that we're seeing with respect to nuclear proliferation in North Korea," he said.
"Although the Philippines is not the largest of countries, it, using a phrase from boxing, punches above its weight in the international arena."
A verdict in the trial of Suu Kyi is expected on Friday, a court official said, after her lawyers wrapped up their final arguments in the case against her on security charges.
A guilty verdict is widely expected. The courts have in the past been known to favor the junta.
Suu Kyi, 64, is on trial for allowing American intruder John Yettaw to stay at her Yangon home in May, when she was under house arrest. He had evaded security to swim across a lake to the house.
Suu Kyi faces five years in prison if convicted.
Neither Obama nor Arroyo specifically mentioned the imprisoned Nobel Peace Prize winner in their remarks.
*****************************************************
Obama backs Philippine peace push
AFP – Friday, July 31
WASHINGTON (AFP) - President Barack Obama on Thursday threw his support behind peace moves between the Philippines and Muslim rebels as he met with President Gloria Arroyo.
Holding his first White House summit with a Southeast Asian leader, Obama hailed the long-standing US alliance with the Philippines on a range of issues including pressing Myanmar on democracy.
"Although the Philippines is not the largest of countries, it -- using a phrase from boxing -- punches above its weight in the international arena," Obama said.
The Philippine government plans to hold talks next week with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), which has been waging a bloody rebellion since 1978 on the southern island of Mindanao.
"I am very pleased that President Arroyo has made such good progress on dealing with counterterrorism issues," Obama said.
"She has initiated a peace process in Mindanao that we think has the potential to bring peace and stability to a part of the Philippines that has been wracked by unrest for too long," he said.
Arroyo thanked the United States for its years of assistance to help the Philippines fight Muslim militants.
She also hailed Obama for reaching out to the Islamic world.
"We welcome President Obama's reaching out to the Muslim world. And also we are very pleased about the importance that he affords to engagement with our part of the world," she said.
Obama spent part of his childhood in Indonesia, another nation his administration has identified for stronger ties.
The Philippines has been among the most vocal Southeast Asian nations in pressuring the military regime Myanmar, earlier known as Burma, where a court on Friday is set to hand a verdict to democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi.
"Internationally, we stand foursquare behind the United States on the position it has taken with regard to Burma and with regard to North Korea's nuclear adventurism," Arroyo said.
She also said that she and Obama "connected very well also on our position with regard to Burma and Aung San Suu Kyi."
Arroyo earlier met with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and was also due to meet business leaders.
AFP – Friday, July 31
WASHINGTON (AFP) - President Barack Obama on Thursday threw his support behind peace moves between the Philippines and Muslim rebels as he met with President Gloria Arroyo.
Holding his first White House summit with a Southeast Asian leader, Obama hailed the long-standing US alliance with the Philippines on a range of issues including pressing Myanmar on democracy.
"Although the Philippines is not the largest of countries, it -- using a phrase from boxing -- punches above its weight in the international arena," Obama said.
The Philippine government plans to hold talks next week with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), which has been waging a bloody rebellion since 1978 on the southern island of Mindanao.
"I am very pleased that President Arroyo has made such good progress on dealing with counterterrorism issues," Obama said.
"She has initiated a peace process in Mindanao that we think has the potential to bring peace and stability to a part of the Philippines that has been wracked by unrest for too long," he said.
Arroyo thanked the United States for its years of assistance to help the Philippines fight Muslim militants.
She also hailed Obama for reaching out to the Islamic world.
"We welcome President Obama's reaching out to the Muslim world. And also we are very pleased about the importance that he affords to engagement with our part of the world," she said.
Obama spent part of his childhood in Indonesia, another nation his administration has identified for stronger ties.
The Philippines has been among the most vocal Southeast Asian nations in pressuring the military regime Myanmar, earlier known as Burma, where a court on Friday is set to hand a verdict to democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi.
"Internationally, we stand foursquare behind the United States on the position it has taken with regard to Burma and with regard to North Korea's nuclear adventurism," Arroyo said.
She also said that she and Obama "connected very well also on our position with regard to Burma and Aung San Suu Kyi."
Arroyo earlier met with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and was also due to meet business leaders.
*****************************************************
Friday July 31, 2009
The Star Online - What next after failure to make junta change its way?
Comment by MERGAWATI ZULKAFAR
All the other Asean foreign ministers and their dialogue partners kept harping on the same two issues – Myanmar and North Korea – in their three days of discussion and Malaysia’s new Foreign Minister Datuk Anifah Aman found this kind of repeated discussion “boring”.
His “boring” remark to Malaysian journalists, who were covering the annual foreign ministers meeting as well as the dialogues with its other partners in Phuket last week, raised some eye brows especially since it is Anifah’s inaugural meeting after taking up the foreign affairs portfolio in April.
Honestly, it is an apt description. The Foreign Minister disclosed every minister when given a chance to speak, touched on wanting to see Myanmar pro democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi freed and criticising North Korea’s nuclear and missile tests.
“I can close my eyes and tell you what was spoken at the meeting. They were issues we had talked over and over again.
“The rest like the spread of influenza A (H1N1) virus or climate change were just mentioned in passing,” Anifah said in his wrap-up press conference at the end of the series of meetings which included dialogue sessions with Asean partners and Asean Regional Forum that discussed security issues and attended by superpowers like China, Russia and United States.
Myanmar has always been openly bashed by the dialogue partners. But for members within the grouping, they preferred to do what they termed as “constructive engagement”.
They did so since Myanmar became an Asean member in 1997. From leaders to foreign ministers and United Nations special envoys, each one of them has failed to convince the military junta to change its way – return to democratic path and release Suu Kyi who is languishing under house arrest.
Like water off a duck’s back, Myanmar remains as it how it wishes to be.
Even as Japan cut aid and European nations widened sanctions after a bloody crackdown on protests by monks last year, the junta just shrugged them off.
Anifah, being new to Asean jargons and terms, must have been exasperated to hear about Myanmar day in and out for three days.
However, he agreed that Myanmar is an important subject and has even urged his other Southeast Asian counterparts to send a team or at least the secretary general to re-engage the Myanmar regime.
“I want to ask what are we to offer to Myanmar for all things we have asked them to do.
“Instead of just asking the country to free political prisoners and embark on a path to democracy, we must offer something in order for them to do so,’’ said Anifah who wants to use unattached development funds to encourage the Myanmar junta to react positively.
Being the new kid on the block, he may not have realised that his idea is not new and is considered naive.
It has been tried by various parties before but it has never worked simply because the junta just doesn’t care what others think of them.
Former Foreign Minister Datuk Seri Syed Hamid Albar said there was a proposal to have a provision for suspension in the Asean Charter for any member that violated human rights but it was strongly opposed.
Threatening to oust out Myanmar is also no go because they will do so happily as it would mean one less party to bother them. Those who have dealt with Myanmar feel that the military junta currently in power is afraid of being prosecuted and even executed if they ever give up power.
Such a situation can only be changed by a revolution – a popular uprising. The monks tried last year but were suppressed by the army. This showed that any revolution will need outside help.
But is there any Asean country willing to do this and be the “outside help”? Based on the discussions at Phuket, this is unlikely to happen.
The international community must be united to allow the United Nations to adopt a resolution to impose hard sanctions on Myanmar and everyone abides by them. The people may suffer but it will be effective to throw out the junta.
Today, a Myanmar court will deliver a verdict on charges against Suu Kyi for allegedly breaching the terms of her house arrest when an American man swam across the lake to her house. She faces up to five years jail.
By the time Asean foreign ministers meet next year for their annual meeting in Vietnam, without doubt Myanmar will still be featured prominently in the talks.
Myanmar by then should have held their elections but will it be fair as by then Suu Kyi will likely be in prison?
Anifah can then repeat his question to his counterparts – what will Asean do next?
The Star Online - What next after failure to make junta change its way?
Comment by MERGAWATI ZULKAFAR
All the other Asean foreign ministers and their dialogue partners kept harping on the same two issues – Myanmar and North Korea – in their three days of discussion and Malaysia’s new Foreign Minister Datuk Anifah Aman found this kind of repeated discussion “boring”.
His “boring” remark to Malaysian journalists, who were covering the annual foreign ministers meeting as well as the dialogues with its other partners in Phuket last week, raised some eye brows especially since it is Anifah’s inaugural meeting after taking up the foreign affairs portfolio in April.
Honestly, it is an apt description. The Foreign Minister disclosed every minister when given a chance to speak, touched on wanting to see Myanmar pro democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi freed and criticising North Korea’s nuclear and missile tests.
“I can close my eyes and tell you what was spoken at the meeting. They were issues we had talked over and over again.
“The rest like the spread of influenza A (H1N1) virus or climate change were just mentioned in passing,” Anifah said in his wrap-up press conference at the end of the series of meetings which included dialogue sessions with Asean partners and Asean Regional Forum that discussed security issues and attended by superpowers like China, Russia and United States.
Myanmar has always been openly bashed by the dialogue partners. But for members within the grouping, they preferred to do what they termed as “constructive engagement”.
They did so since Myanmar became an Asean member in 1997. From leaders to foreign ministers and United Nations special envoys, each one of them has failed to convince the military junta to change its way – return to democratic path and release Suu Kyi who is languishing under house arrest.
Like water off a duck’s back, Myanmar remains as it how it wishes to be.
Even as Japan cut aid and European nations widened sanctions after a bloody crackdown on protests by monks last year, the junta just shrugged them off.
Anifah, being new to Asean jargons and terms, must have been exasperated to hear about Myanmar day in and out for three days.
However, he agreed that Myanmar is an important subject and has even urged his other Southeast Asian counterparts to send a team or at least the secretary general to re-engage the Myanmar regime.
“I want to ask what are we to offer to Myanmar for all things we have asked them to do.
“Instead of just asking the country to free political prisoners and embark on a path to democracy, we must offer something in order for them to do so,’’ said Anifah who wants to use unattached development funds to encourage the Myanmar junta to react positively.
Being the new kid on the block, he may not have realised that his idea is not new and is considered naive.
It has been tried by various parties before but it has never worked simply because the junta just doesn’t care what others think of them.
Former Foreign Minister Datuk Seri Syed Hamid Albar said there was a proposal to have a provision for suspension in the Asean Charter for any member that violated human rights but it was strongly opposed.
Threatening to oust out Myanmar is also no go because they will do so happily as it would mean one less party to bother them. Those who have dealt with Myanmar feel that the military junta currently in power is afraid of being prosecuted and even executed if they ever give up power.
Such a situation can only be changed by a revolution – a popular uprising. The monks tried last year but were suppressed by the army. This showed that any revolution will need outside help.
But is there any Asean country willing to do this and be the “outside help”? Based on the discussions at Phuket, this is unlikely to happen.
The international community must be united to allow the United Nations to adopt a resolution to impose hard sanctions on Myanmar and everyone abides by them. The people may suffer but it will be effective to throw out the junta.
Today, a Myanmar court will deliver a verdict on charges against Suu Kyi for allegedly breaching the terms of her house arrest when an American man swam across the lake to her house. She faces up to five years jail.
By the time Asean foreign ministers meet next year for their annual meeting in Vietnam, without doubt Myanmar will still be featured prominently in the talks.
Myanmar by then should have held their elections but will it be fair as by then Suu Kyi will likely be in prison?
Anifah can then repeat his question to his counterparts – what will Asean do next?
*****************************************************
Borneo Bulletin - 'The Lady' still haunts Myanmar junta
July 31, 2009, Friday
BANGKOK (AFP) - With a signature flower in her hair, Aung San Suu Kyi has for more than two decades been an icon of peaceful defiance despite the indignities meted out by Myanmar's military dictatorship.
The frail 64-year-old, who was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 1991, faces up to five years in jail when a prison court sentences her on Friday on charges of breaching the terms of her seemingly endless house arrest.
Despite recent questions about her relevance, the junta showed that it still regarded her as its arch foe when it pounced on a bizarre incident in May when an American intruder swam to her lakeside villa.
"The fact that the junta has locked her up shows they still feel intimidated by her. She is the icon who gives inspiration to the people of Burma," Sunai Phasuk of New York-based Human Rights Watch told AFP.
Suu Kyi has spent 13 of the last 19 years in jail or under house arrest at the hands of Myanmar's all-powerful generals, but her virtual isolation from the outside world has not dimmed her quiet fervour.
Much of that time has been at her crumbling lakeside house in Yangon, where she is kept without telephone or Internet access, with only the company of two female aides and occasional visits permitted from her doctor and lawyer.
In November last year and again in May, she received an uninvited visitor - eccentric American John Yettaw, who crossed scenic Lake Inya to her house using home-made flippers and stayed there for two days.
After Yettaw was arrested, she was suddenly shifted to the notorious Insein prison in Yangon and placed on trial - just days before the latest, six-year period of her house arrest was due to expire.
But analysts and opposition groups say the junta's determination to exploit the incident shows how much they fear her influence ahead of widely derided elections scheduled for some time in next year.
The daughter of Myanmar's founding father General Aung San, who was assassinated in 1947, she launched her political career relatively late after spending much of her life abroad.
A slender woman who prefers traditional clothing, Suu Kyi studied at Oxford, married a British academic, had two sons and seemed settled in Britain.
July 31, 2009, Friday
BANGKOK (AFP) - With a signature flower in her hair, Aung San Suu Kyi has for more than two decades been an icon of peaceful defiance despite the indignities meted out by Myanmar's military dictatorship.
The frail 64-year-old, who was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 1991, faces up to five years in jail when a prison court sentences her on Friday on charges of breaching the terms of her seemingly endless house arrest.
Despite recent questions about her relevance, the junta showed that it still regarded her as its arch foe when it pounced on a bizarre incident in May when an American intruder swam to her lakeside villa.
"The fact that the junta has locked her up shows they still feel intimidated by her. She is the icon who gives inspiration to the people of Burma," Sunai Phasuk of New York-based Human Rights Watch told AFP.
Suu Kyi has spent 13 of the last 19 years in jail or under house arrest at the hands of Myanmar's all-powerful generals, but her virtual isolation from the outside world has not dimmed her quiet fervour.
Much of that time has been at her crumbling lakeside house in Yangon, where she is kept without telephone or Internet access, with only the company of two female aides and occasional visits permitted from her doctor and lawyer.
In November last year and again in May, she received an uninvited visitor - eccentric American John Yettaw, who crossed scenic Lake Inya to her house using home-made flippers and stayed there for two days.
After Yettaw was arrested, she was suddenly shifted to the notorious Insein prison in Yangon and placed on trial - just days before the latest, six-year period of her house arrest was due to expire.
But analysts and opposition groups say the junta's determination to exploit the incident shows how much they fear her influence ahead of widely derided elections scheduled for some time in next year.
The daughter of Myanmar's founding father General Aung San, who was assassinated in 1947, she launched her political career relatively late after spending much of her life abroad.
A slender woman who prefers traditional clothing, Suu Kyi studied at Oxford, married a British academic, had two sons and seemed settled in Britain.
*****************************************************
Aljazeera.net - Myanmar's conundrum over Suu Kyi
Friday, July 31, 2009
The decision to delay the verdict in the trial of Myanmar opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi is the latest twist in a confused and at times bizarre case.
Accused of breaking the terms of her house arrest, the trial which began in mid-May has been a stop-start process, convening for a few days before being adjourned again.
Her lawyers argue that the case itself has no legal basis as the charges she is accused of are based on a version of Myanmar's constitution that was superseded two decades ago.
The allegations centre on the strange case of American John Yettaw, a Vietnam war veteran, who swam uninvited to Aung San Suu Kyi's lakeside home, apparently on a mission from God, after having visions that she was in danger of being assassinated.
"She was surprised, everyone in the room was surprised about the decision," Chad Jacinto, the charge d'affaires at the Philippine embassy in Yangon who was in the courtroom in Yangon's Insein jail on Friday, told Al Jazeera.
But while many had been braced for a guilty announcement on Friday – including, apparently, Aung San Suu Kyi herself - analysts say the decision to delay the verdict was not necessarily unexpected.
"There's been confusion all along about this trial, because I'm not sure that they knew what they were doing when they went into it," Priscilla Clapp, the former US chief of mission in Myanmar between 1999 and 2002, told Al Jazeera.
"I think that they stumbled into it, in a way, and are trying to figure out how to get out of it without totally destroying their reputation – not that their reputation is good to begin with."
Sensitive time
One possibility for the delay, she said, was the proximity of the anniversary of the August 8, 1988 student-led pro-democracy uprising which was brutally crushed by the military.
The anniversary comes at a particularly sensitive time because of the military's focus on national elections it plans to hold next year, part of a drawn out process it has labelled a "road map to democracy".
"They are preoccupied with the internal situation right now," Clapp said.
"They are very concerned about stability, they are very concerned about making this election work the way they want it to work."
Aung San Suu Kyi has long been a thorn in the side of the military ever since she became the leader of the pro-democracy movement in the late 1980s.
But at the same time she also commands a degree of respect from some members of military, albeit begrudgingly, from her status as the daughter of Myanmar's independence hero, Aung San, the man who also founded the Myanmar military.
'Important influence'
Larry Jagan, a Myanmar analyst based in the Thai capital, Bangkok, said that the court's decision to delay its verdict most likely reflects the fact that Myanmar's top ruler,
Senior General Than Shwe, has not yet decided what to do with Aung San Suu Kyi.
"This is a political trial rather than a legal trial," he told Al Jazeera.
By putting off the decision, he said, Myanmar's ruling military may also be hoping to deflect international pressure over the case, although he said that was more likely to have been a factor in postponing the announcement, rather than the outcome itself.
"With the elections coming up they don't want Aung San Suu Kyi out campaigning and promoting any party which is anti-military, even if her own National League for Democracy doesn't run," Jagan said.
"She could have a very important influence on the outcome of the election, which would be contrary to the outcome that Than Shwe wants."
Friday, July 31, 2009
The decision to delay the verdict in the trial of Myanmar opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi is the latest twist in a confused and at times bizarre case.
Accused of breaking the terms of her house arrest, the trial which began in mid-May has been a stop-start process, convening for a few days before being adjourned again.
Her lawyers argue that the case itself has no legal basis as the charges she is accused of are based on a version of Myanmar's constitution that was superseded two decades ago.
The allegations centre on the strange case of American John Yettaw, a Vietnam war veteran, who swam uninvited to Aung San Suu Kyi's lakeside home, apparently on a mission from God, after having visions that she was in danger of being assassinated.
"She was surprised, everyone in the room was surprised about the decision," Chad Jacinto, the charge d'affaires at the Philippine embassy in Yangon who was in the courtroom in Yangon's Insein jail on Friday, told Al Jazeera.
But while many had been braced for a guilty announcement on Friday – including, apparently, Aung San Suu Kyi herself - analysts say the decision to delay the verdict was not necessarily unexpected.
"There's been confusion all along about this trial, because I'm not sure that they knew what they were doing when they went into it," Priscilla Clapp, the former US chief of mission in Myanmar between 1999 and 2002, told Al Jazeera.
"I think that they stumbled into it, in a way, and are trying to figure out how to get out of it without totally destroying their reputation – not that their reputation is good to begin with."
Sensitive time
One possibility for the delay, she said, was the proximity of the anniversary of the August 8, 1988 student-led pro-democracy uprising which was brutally crushed by the military.
The anniversary comes at a particularly sensitive time because of the military's focus on national elections it plans to hold next year, part of a drawn out process it has labelled a "road map to democracy".
"They are preoccupied with the internal situation right now," Clapp said.
"They are very concerned about stability, they are very concerned about making this election work the way they want it to work."
Aung San Suu Kyi has long been a thorn in the side of the military ever since she became the leader of the pro-democracy movement in the late 1980s.
But at the same time she also commands a degree of respect from some members of military, albeit begrudgingly, from her status as the daughter of Myanmar's independence hero, Aung San, the man who also founded the Myanmar military.
'Important influence'
Larry Jagan, a Myanmar analyst based in the Thai capital, Bangkok, said that the court's decision to delay its verdict most likely reflects the fact that Myanmar's top ruler,
Senior General Than Shwe, has not yet decided what to do with Aung San Suu Kyi.
"This is a political trial rather than a legal trial," he told Al Jazeera.
By putting off the decision, he said, Myanmar's ruling military may also be hoping to deflect international pressure over the case, although he said that was more likely to have been a factor in postponing the announcement, rather than the outcome itself.
"With the elections coming up they don't want Aung San Suu Kyi out campaigning and promoting any party which is anti-military, even if her own National League for Democracy doesn't run," Jagan said.
"She could have a very important influence on the outcome of the election, which would be contrary to the outcome that Than Shwe wants."
*****************************************************
Myanmar Should Free Suu Kyi, U.S. Says as Trial Verdict Due
By Daniel Ten Kate and Paul Tighe
July 31 (Bloomberg) -- Myanmar should free opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, the U.S. said, as a court today delivers its verdict in her trial for violating a detention order that could result in her being jailed for five years.
“She should be immediately and unconditionally released, along with the 2,100 other political prisoners,” State Department spokesman Ian Kelly said in Washington yesterday. The U.S. has maintained “a very consistent public message” that she should be freed.
A prison sentence will ensure that Suu Kyi, 64, the leader of the National League for Democracy, won’t be able to participate in elections scheduled for 2010 as the United Nations has demanded.
Suu Kyi is accused of breaking her house arrest order for allowing an American to stay for two days after he swam to her lakeside home in the former capital, Yangon. She has spent 13 years in detention since the NLD won Myanmar’s last elections in 1990, a result rejected by the military.
The verdict may invite a fresh wave of criticism against the country formerly known as Burma, which has been ruled by a line of generals since 1962. Leaders from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, the U.S. and Europe have called for Nobel laureate Suu Kyi’s release.
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton “took every opportunity to urge her colleagues to make a similar message on the need for Aung San Suu Kyi to be released unconditionally” when she attended an Asean regional meeting in Thailand last week, Kelly said, according to a State Department transcript. Myanmar is a member of the 10-nation Asean group.
Show Trial
President Barack Obama, who extended sanctions against Myanmar’s military regime earlier this week, denounced the proceedings in May as a “show trial.” U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown pledged to step up sanctions against the regime, calling the court hearing “absurd and contemptible.”
“The people of Burma are very angry and the international community is outraged,” said Bo Kyi, secretary-general of the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners, who spent more than seven years in a Myanmar prison. “The military regime will pay a price for that.”
Suu Kyi denied the charges and blamed the security breach on the regime, which is responsible for guarding her residence. Indonesian Foreign Minister Hassan Wirajuda said in an interview last week that “she did not make a mistake” and questioned why the guards protecting her house weren’t brought to trial.
Asean Call
When Suu Kyi’s trial started in May, Myanmar “strongly rejected” a statement from Asean calling on the regime to release her immediately. Suu Kyi’s detention and trial are “in accordance with the normal practice in every state” and “merely the internal affairs of Myanmar,” the state-run New Light of Myanmar newspaper said.
There should be “no prediction about who is guilty or who is not guilty until the court passes judgment,” Agence France- Presse cited the newspaper as saying in an editorial yesterday.
John Yettaw, the American national who entered Suu Kyi’s home, and two of her maids are also on trial over the incident.
The junta blocked UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon from meeting with Suu Kyi in a visit earlier this month. The UN chief, who aimed to press the government into freeing all political prisoners so the elections next year are credible, said he was “deeply disappointed” by the trip.
By Daniel Ten Kate and Paul Tighe
July 31 (Bloomberg) -- Myanmar should free opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, the U.S. said, as a court today delivers its verdict in her trial for violating a detention order that could result in her being jailed for five years.
“She should be immediately and unconditionally released, along with the 2,100 other political prisoners,” State Department spokesman Ian Kelly said in Washington yesterday. The U.S. has maintained “a very consistent public message” that she should be freed.
A prison sentence will ensure that Suu Kyi, 64, the leader of the National League for Democracy, won’t be able to participate in elections scheduled for 2010 as the United Nations has demanded.
Suu Kyi is accused of breaking her house arrest order for allowing an American to stay for two days after he swam to her lakeside home in the former capital, Yangon. She has spent 13 years in detention since the NLD won Myanmar’s last elections in 1990, a result rejected by the military.
The verdict may invite a fresh wave of criticism against the country formerly known as Burma, which has been ruled by a line of generals since 1962. Leaders from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, the U.S. and Europe have called for Nobel laureate Suu Kyi’s release.
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton “took every opportunity to urge her colleagues to make a similar message on the need for Aung San Suu Kyi to be released unconditionally” when she attended an Asean regional meeting in Thailand last week, Kelly said, according to a State Department transcript. Myanmar is a member of the 10-nation Asean group.
Show Trial
President Barack Obama, who extended sanctions against Myanmar’s military regime earlier this week, denounced the proceedings in May as a “show trial.” U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown pledged to step up sanctions against the regime, calling the court hearing “absurd and contemptible.”
“The people of Burma are very angry and the international community is outraged,” said Bo Kyi, secretary-general of the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners, who spent more than seven years in a Myanmar prison. “The military regime will pay a price for that.”
Suu Kyi denied the charges and blamed the security breach on the regime, which is responsible for guarding her residence. Indonesian Foreign Minister Hassan Wirajuda said in an interview last week that “she did not make a mistake” and questioned why the guards protecting her house weren’t brought to trial.
Asean Call
When Suu Kyi’s trial started in May, Myanmar “strongly rejected” a statement from Asean calling on the regime to release her immediately. Suu Kyi’s detention and trial are “in accordance with the normal practice in every state” and “merely the internal affairs of Myanmar,” the state-run New Light of Myanmar newspaper said.
There should be “no prediction about who is guilty or who is not guilty until the court passes judgment,” Agence France- Presse cited the newspaper as saying in an editorial yesterday.
John Yettaw, the American national who entered Suu Kyi’s home, and two of her maids are also on trial over the incident.
The junta blocked UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon from meeting with Suu Kyi in a visit earlier this month. The UN chief, who aimed to press the government into freeing all political prisoners so the elections next year are credible, said he was “deeply disappointed” by the trip.
*****************************************************
Global Politician - North Korean Conundrums Continues
Rajaram Panda, Ph.D. - 7/30/2009
Friday, July 31, 2009
The recent bellicosity unleashed by Kim Jong Il regime of North Korea by conducting underground nuclear test and the audacity of announcing the world that more such successive tests are in the pipeline sends shivers through the spine of neighbouring countries of Northeast Asia such as South Korea and Japan. China as the host of the Six-Party talks has not given up hope on the SPT, though at the moment Pyongyang has walked out of the forum.
As a volte face, now Pyongyang agrees to talk only to the US about the rising tension over its nuclear weapons programme. This was a marked shift in tactics after months of ratcheting up foreign anxieties with nuclear test and missile launches. Surprising as it may be, this change in stance came only days after the North Korean leadership traded jibes with US Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, at a regional summit in Thailand. It said she was “by no means intelligent” and looked like a schoolgirl or a pensioner going shopping, after she compared it to a group of “small children”.
North Korea’s ambassador to the United Nations argues that the six-party talks are dead for ever, categorically saying that “we will never participate in the six-party talks again. Never again.” He further argues that North Korea is the only one of the six without nuclear access. The US, China and Russia have nuclear capability, and Japan and South Korea are under the protection of the US. The argument, therefore, is that there is only country with nuclear vacancy in the region. Pyongyang feels defenceless and possessing nuclear deterrent is therefore perceived to be their legitimate option. Yet, despite Pyongyang’s sudden invite to Washington, the deadlock is likely to continue on the issue of participation in the talks. Any meaningful talks seem therefore unlikely soon.
Critics argue that this may be a ploy on Pyongyang’s part to extract some aid and money from the US to survive for a year and build more “defensive” weapons. If the US agrees to the bilateral talks, North Korea can sell the idea to its people that the US is afraid of its military. If the US thinks in the negative, Pyongyang can proclaim to the world that the US wants to start a war in the Korean peninsula. The most likely scenario seems to be to dragging on the issue with no real action of any form to curtail the atomic and missile programs of North Korea
Resolution 1874
Japan is equally concerned as its own security becomes more vulnerable. To rein in Pyongyang, it has sought enhanced sanctions through the UN Security Council resolution to make the North see reason. The Obama administration has demonstrated its ineffectiveness to punish Pyongyang. As regards Russia, it is geographically a bit far from the Korean peninsula. Its main interests are non-proliferation of nuclear weapons and want a de-nuclearised North Korea. It is keen to strengthen the role of the IAEA, though North Korea has asked the IAEA members to leave the country.
In order to prevent nuclear weapons exports by North Korea, the United Nations Security Council passed a resolution No. 1874 on 12 June banning such exports and provided the UN member states the means of enforcing the new restrictions. Resolution 1874 calls upon countries to inspect North Korean cargos on the high seas, but only “with the consent of the flag State”, in this case North Korea. If Pyongyang refuses, a member state can, with the term of the resolution, direct the vessel to an appropriate convenient port for inspection by local officials. If Pyongyang refuses to divert the ship, the resolution contemplates the filing of a report to a UN committee.
Kang Nam 1 and link with Myanmar
Around this time, the Kang Nam 1, a North Korea tramp freighter, was on the high seas tailed by a team of American destroyers and submarines and watched by reconnaissance satellites and aircraft. The USS John S. McCain in the South China Sea shadowed the slow-moving North Korean freighter. On board, its cargo was suspected to be plutonium pellets, missile parts or semi-ripe melons. Washington wanted to know what was in the rusty ship’s hold. According to South Korean intelligence reports, the ship’s mission appeared to be related to a Myanmar nuclear program and also carried Scud-type missiles.
It was suspected that the Kang Nam 1 was carrying weapons and was approaching Myanmar. Though Resolution 1874 allowed states to seize and dispose off illicit weapons, the US diplomats touted these steps as innovative, robust and unprecedented. However, any US action against the Kang Nam 1 could have evoked sharp response from Pyongyang. There lied the danger how other countries would have reacted.
Why was the sudden interest in this particular vessel Kang Nam 1? It was believed that Kang Nam 1 was a repeat offender and known to have carried proliferation materials. The ship was presumed to have been carrying something illicit given its past history. If Kang Nam 1 was allowed to sail to its destination, suspected to be Myanmar, India would have been concerned too of such activities going on in its neighbourhood. Though the real intentions of the vessel were not clear, for unknown reason, Kang Nam I returned to the North Korean shore, thereby putting to all speculations to an abrupt halt. The reason for its return remained a mystery. As per the commander of the US Pacific Command, air and sea traffic between the two countries could be used to transfer nuclear technology from one isolated regime to another.
In the meantime, the Japanese police arrested three men over an alleged attempt to send high-tech arms-making equipment to Myanmar at the behest of North Korean agents. This deepened suspicions that Pyongyang was helping to arm Myanmar’s military junta. The three arrested men – a North Korean citizen and two Japanese – had attempted to ship to Myanmar a magnetometer, a device used to measure the strength of magnetic fields. Export of “dual use” devices is restricted under Japanese law because they are employed in the manufacture of ballistic missiles.
Myanmar and North Korea ended diplomatic relations in 1983 after a bungled assassination attempt by North Korean agents killed 20 people in Myanmar. But in recent years, they are believed to be cooperating in a number of areas, including weapons supplies. Myanmar’s exiles have published photographs of vast network of underground tunnels and bunkers outside Myanmar’s jungle capital, Naypyidaw, built with help from North Korean engineers. Like North Korea’s leaders, the military junta lives in constant fear of attack by a western power.
According to Khin Maung Win, executive director of the Norway-based Democratic Voice of Burma, a military team of Myanmar traveled to Russia for training in nuclear technology. Win further says that the junta entered into a contract with Russia for a small nuclear reactor but the deal fell through when the junta failed to pay the money.
Though Kang Nam 1 made steady progress down the coast of China, Myanmar government issued a statement denying that the vessel was heading to Myanmar’s coast. On the other hand, Myanmar claimed that it was expecting another North Korean vessel MV Dumangang, a cargo vessel carrying rice from India. Myanmar is suspected to be getting significant quantities of conventional weapons from North Korea in the past few years, and also getting help in building a sophisticated complex of tunnels and bunkers for its military rulers. Therefore, it was difficult to accept the initial denials by Myanmar that Kang Nam 1 was not heading towards its ports.
Two interesting developments: First, Burma’s Censorship Board restricted reportage on the progress of the North Korean vessel. Second, the vessel might have been forced to refuel in Singapore, in which case the Singaporean authorities would have faced a dilemma over whether to try to inspect its cargo. North Korea had warned it would view such inspection as an act of war.
Scernarios
The most frightening and worst-case scenario seems to be North Korea provides Myanmar nuclear technology. Hillary Clinton said in Thailand that such a technology exchange would be a threat to its allies as well as contribute to the destabilization of the region. Not only North Korea suspected of supplying Myanmar with small-caliber weapons and ammunitions, but also suspected of helping Myanmar pursue a nuclear weapons program.
The other possible dimension to this is whether the US would reexamine its role as a “bad cop” and set the stage for the “good cops” – China, India and ASEAN – to make the junta see reason. But then the “good cops” do not share a common agenda. While Myanmar’s neighbours would opt for engagement, China would protect its own interests of maintaining extensive trade relations and uses it as a backdoor to the Bay of Bengal. As regards India, it sells arms to the junta as a counterpoint to China’s influence. The ASEAN members prefer to stick to their guiding principle of “noninterference” and pursuit of trade and investment. Such a picture not only undermines the US policy of isolation and sanctions but provides fertile ground for Myanmar to do its own business with North Korea the way it likes.
Security planners in India ought to be seized of the matter that sophisticated weapons reaching Myanmar make the Northeastern region more vulnerable. Since India has diplomatic relations with both Myanmar and North Korea, the government needs to talk with the leaders of both countries to prevent any such eventuality.
Rajaram Panda, Ph.D. is a Senior Fellow at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi, a premier think tank on security and defence related issues, in India.
Rajaram Panda, Ph.D. - 7/30/2009
Friday, July 31, 2009
The recent bellicosity unleashed by Kim Jong Il regime of North Korea by conducting underground nuclear test and the audacity of announcing the world that more such successive tests are in the pipeline sends shivers through the spine of neighbouring countries of Northeast Asia such as South Korea and Japan. China as the host of the Six-Party talks has not given up hope on the SPT, though at the moment Pyongyang has walked out of the forum.
As a volte face, now Pyongyang agrees to talk only to the US about the rising tension over its nuclear weapons programme. This was a marked shift in tactics after months of ratcheting up foreign anxieties with nuclear test and missile launches. Surprising as it may be, this change in stance came only days after the North Korean leadership traded jibes with US Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, at a regional summit in Thailand. It said she was “by no means intelligent” and looked like a schoolgirl or a pensioner going shopping, after she compared it to a group of “small children”.
North Korea’s ambassador to the United Nations argues that the six-party talks are dead for ever, categorically saying that “we will never participate in the six-party talks again. Never again.” He further argues that North Korea is the only one of the six without nuclear access. The US, China and Russia have nuclear capability, and Japan and South Korea are under the protection of the US. The argument, therefore, is that there is only country with nuclear vacancy in the region. Pyongyang feels defenceless and possessing nuclear deterrent is therefore perceived to be their legitimate option. Yet, despite Pyongyang’s sudden invite to Washington, the deadlock is likely to continue on the issue of participation in the talks. Any meaningful talks seem therefore unlikely soon.
Critics argue that this may be a ploy on Pyongyang’s part to extract some aid and money from the US to survive for a year and build more “defensive” weapons. If the US agrees to the bilateral talks, North Korea can sell the idea to its people that the US is afraid of its military. If the US thinks in the negative, Pyongyang can proclaim to the world that the US wants to start a war in the Korean peninsula. The most likely scenario seems to be to dragging on the issue with no real action of any form to curtail the atomic and missile programs of North Korea
Resolution 1874
Japan is equally concerned as its own security becomes more vulnerable. To rein in Pyongyang, it has sought enhanced sanctions through the UN Security Council resolution to make the North see reason. The Obama administration has demonstrated its ineffectiveness to punish Pyongyang. As regards Russia, it is geographically a bit far from the Korean peninsula. Its main interests are non-proliferation of nuclear weapons and want a de-nuclearised North Korea. It is keen to strengthen the role of the IAEA, though North Korea has asked the IAEA members to leave the country.
In order to prevent nuclear weapons exports by North Korea, the United Nations Security Council passed a resolution No. 1874 on 12 June banning such exports and provided the UN member states the means of enforcing the new restrictions. Resolution 1874 calls upon countries to inspect North Korean cargos on the high seas, but only “with the consent of the flag State”, in this case North Korea. If Pyongyang refuses, a member state can, with the term of the resolution, direct the vessel to an appropriate convenient port for inspection by local officials. If Pyongyang refuses to divert the ship, the resolution contemplates the filing of a report to a UN committee.
Kang Nam 1 and link with Myanmar
Around this time, the Kang Nam 1, a North Korea tramp freighter, was on the high seas tailed by a team of American destroyers and submarines and watched by reconnaissance satellites and aircraft. The USS John S. McCain in the South China Sea shadowed the slow-moving North Korean freighter. On board, its cargo was suspected to be plutonium pellets, missile parts or semi-ripe melons. Washington wanted to know what was in the rusty ship’s hold. According to South Korean intelligence reports, the ship’s mission appeared to be related to a Myanmar nuclear program and also carried Scud-type missiles.
It was suspected that the Kang Nam 1 was carrying weapons and was approaching Myanmar. Though Resolution 1874 allowed states to seize and dispose off illicit weapons, the US diplomats touted these steps as innovative, robust and unprecedented. However, any US action against the Kang Nam 1 could have evoked sharp response from Pyongyang. There lied the danger how other countries would have reacted.
Why was the sudden interest in this particular vessel Kang Nam 1? It was believed that Kang Nam 1 was a repeat offender and known to have carried proliferation materials. The ship was presumed to have been carrying something illicit given its past history. If Kang Nam 1 was allowed to sail to its destination, suspected to be Myanmar, India would have been concerned too of such activities going on in its neighbourhood. Though the real intentions of the vessel were not clear, for unknown reason, Kang Nam I returned to the North Korean shore, thereby putting to all speculations to an abrupt halt. The reason for its return remained a mystery. As per the commander of the US Pacific Command, air and sea traffic between the two countries could be used to transfer nuclear technology from one isolated regime to another.
In the meantime, the Japanese police arrested three men over an alleged attempt to send high-tech arms-making equipment to Myanmar at the behest of North Korean agents. This deepened suspicions that Pyongyang was helping to arm Myanmar’s military junta. The three arrested men – a North Korean citizen and two Japanese – had attempted to ship to Myanmar a magnetometer, a device used to measure the strength of magnetic fields. Export of “dual use” devices is restricted under Japanese law because they are employed in the manufacture of ballistic missiles.
Myanmar and North Korea ended diplomatic relations in 1983 after a bungled assassination attempt by North Korean agents killed 20 people in Myanmar. But in recent years, they are believed to be cooperating in a number of areas, including weapons supplies. Myanmar’s exiles have published photographs of vast network of underground tunnels and bunkers outside Myanmar’s jungle capital, Naypyidaw, built with help from North Korean engineers. Like North Korea’s leaders, the military junta lives in constant fear of attack by a western power.
According to Khin Maung Win, executive director of the Norway-based Democratic Voice of Burma, a military team of Myanmar traveled to Russia for training in nuclear technology. Win further says that the junta entered into a contract with Russia for a small nuclear reactor but the deal fell through when the junta failed to pay the money.
Though Kang Nam 1 made steady progress down the coast of China, Myanmar government issued a statement denying that the vessel was heading to Myanmar’s coast. On the other hand, Myanmar claimed that it was expecting another North Korean vessel MV Dumangang, a cargo vessel carrying rice from India. Myanmar is suspected to be getting significant quantities of conventional weapons from North Korea in the past few years, and also getting help in building a sophisticated complex of tunnels and bunkers for its military rulers. Therefore, it was difficult to accept the initial denials by Myanmar that Kang Nam 1 was not heading towards its ports.
Two interesting developments: First, Burma’s Censorship Board restricted reportage on the progress of the North Korean vessel. Second, the vessel might have been forced to refuel in Singapore, in which case the Singaporean authorities would have faced a dilemma over whether to try to inspect its cargo. North Korea had warned it would view such inspection as an act of war.
Scernarios
The most frightening and worst-case scenario seems to be North Korea provides Myanmar nuclear technology. Hillary Clinton said in Thailand that such a technology exchange would be a threat to its allies as well as contribute to the destabilization of the region. Not only North Korea suspected of supplying Myanmar with small-caliber weapons and ammunitions, but also suspected of helping Myanmar pursue a nuclear weapons program.
The other possible dimension to this is whether the US would reexamine its role as a “bad cop” and set the stage for the “good cops” – China, India and ASEAN – to make the junta see reason. But then the “good cops” do not share a common agenda. While Myanmar’s neighbours would opt for engagement, China would protect its own interests of maintaining extensive trade relations and uses it as a backdoor to the Bay of Bengal. As regards India, it sells arms to the junta as a counterpoint to China’s influence. The ASEAN members prefer to stick to their guiding principle of “noninterference” and pursuit of trade and investment. Such a picture not only undermines the US policy of isolation and sanctions but provides fertile ground for Myanmar to do its own business with North Korea the way it likes.
Security planners in India ought to be seized of the matter that sophisticated weapons reaching Myanmar make the Northeastern region more vulnerable. Since India has diplomatic relations with both Myanmar and North Korea, the government needs to talk with the leaders of both countries to prevent any such eventuality.
Rajaram Panda, Ph.D. is a Senior Fellow at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi, a premier think tank on security and defence related issues, in India.
*****************************************************
Washington Times - Foreign aid trickling in for Myanmar
Countries set aside politics as AIDS gets more severe
By ASSOCIATED PRESS | Friday, July 31, 2009
YANGON, Myanmar - Shrunken to 30 pounds of skin and bones, Ma Moe could barely walk when she arrived on the doorstep of the clinic nearly two years ago. Her husband had died from AIDS complications three years earlier, and it was slowly killing her.
If not for the free medicine she receives, she would be dead, the 35-year-old widow said as she waited for her monthly visit. "I had no money, my house was destroyed by [Cyclone] Nargis, I had nowhere else to go."
The modest one-story wooden clinic, one of two dozen run by international aid group Doctors Without Borders, is on the front lines of Myanmar's struggle against HIV/AIDS, a disease that often spells a slow death sentence for Burmese because of a shortage of anti-retroviral medicines.
As foreign donors largely shunned this isolated military-run nation, its AIDS epidemic, one of the most serious in Asia, steadily worsened out of the spotlight.
But now Western governments and donors have begun reassessing their approach after years of tough sanctions failed to yield much progress.
The Global Fund for AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, a major international donor that pulled out in 2005, is considering returning to Myanmar, a decision that could inject millions of dollars in funding and triple the number of people getting life-saving medicine.
Donors have long feared that aid would only bolster the iron-hand rule of the military government. Myanmar receives only about $3 per capita in aid, compared with $23 for Vietnam and $50 for Laos.
An estimated 240,000 people are infected by HIV, which causes AIDS. Of those, about 76,000 are in need of the life-saving antiretroviral treatment, but less than a quarter of them - about 18,000 - are getting it. The lack of accessible treatment translates into about 25,000 deaths a year.
At $30 a month, roughly equal to the average monthly salary here, the cost for the medication is beyond the reach of many. A lucky few get it free from Doctors Without Borders, also known as Medecins Sans Frontieres, which provides drugs and treatment to about 12,000 people across the country. A handful of smaller nongovernmental organizations cover about 4,000 patients, while the government provides for about 1,800.
"There's such huge need but so little money from donors that we end up being the main provider of [anti-retroviral treatment]," said Luke Arend, the head of Doctors Without Borders in Myanmar. "It's probably the only place in the world where an NGO is effectively running the country's HIV program, as the national AIDS program has such limited funding. That's a sad state of affairs."
After years of silence and denial, the regime finally acknowledged the AIDS scourge in early 2000.
Some aid groups say privately that government health officials are now keenly aware of the problem but that the regime's priorities lie elsewhere. Myanmar, with one of the world's largest armies, spends the least amount of any country on its national health budget - just 0.3 percent of the gross domestic product, of which a small amount goes toward AIDS.
The lines start early outside the AIDS clinic set in the middle of farmland on the outskirts of Yangon. By midmorning, the waiting room is jammed with patients - mothers holding babies, young couples, men visibly frail and emaciated.
The anti-retroviral drugs have returned Mrs. Moe, the AIDS widow, to a visibly healthy glow. Her weight has rebounded to normal. Sitting in a small room off the main clinic, she talked candidly about the disease she didn't know existed until after her husband died in 2006.
"I was scared to take a blood test. I didn't know anything about AIDS," she said. "The doctors warned me ahead of time that if I had HIV, I might die.
"My health has gotten better, but I know in my mind I am still HIV positive. I know I can die without the drugs."
In mid-2007, overwhelmed and beyond its capacity, Doctors Without Borders temporarily stopped taking new patients for more than a year. The result was starkly painful, said Dr. Soe Yadanar, who has been working in the clinics for a decade.
"While they waited, some died," she said.
The situation could be very different by next year. The Global Fund, a U.N.-backed fund for three key diseases, is considering an application by Myanmar for $320 million in funding, with the goal of treating 42,000 new AIDS cases within five years. A final decision could come by this fall.
Increasingly, Western nations have realized that broad sanctions are hurting their interests because the military junta is prepared to forego any aid with political strings attached, according to a report last fall by the International Crisis Group.
The European Union, including Britain, has reviewed its assistance policy to Myanmar. Even the United States, perhaps the strongest supporter of ever-tightening aid restrictions, has said it is in the process of reviewing its overall Myanmar policy. During a trip to Asia earlier this year, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton spoke plainly: "Clearly, the path we have taken in imposing sanctions hasn't influenced the Burmese junta."
The shift marks a turnaround in the political climate from even a few years ago, when Myanmar was treated as a complete pariah state.
In 2005, the Global Fund abruptly announced that it was withdrawing from the country after less than a year. Spokesman Jon Liden said government restrictions barring access to certain areas of the country made it impossible to monitor how the $100 million in funding was being used.
"For us, there was no direct political considerations," he said. "We'd always be willing to provide funds regardless of the government, as long as we can ensure that it's being used effectively."
But other aid groups believed the decision was more likely the result of heavy political pressure exerted by the United States, the largest donor to the Global Fund and one that strongly opposed any kind of aid.
Regardless of the reasons, the government read it negatively, said Andrew Kirkwood, country director for Save the Children in Myanmar.
"It sent a message to the [Myanmar] government that humanitarian assistance was political, despite the rhetoric that it was not linked. It did a great deal of damage to the relationship between international aid groups and the regime," he said.
For humanitarian groups, the key shift came in the aftermath of last year's devastating Cyclone Nargis, which claimed at least 138,000 lives and was impossible for other nations and aid groups to ignore.
After an initial bottleneck by Myanmar's military leaders, aid groups have flooded into the country, said Choo Phuah, country director for the British-based International HIV/AIDS Alliance, which works with grass-roots organizations in Myanmar.
"I think Nargis did shift people's perspective about working in the country. Following the cyclone, many organizations started programs in the country," she said.
In the wake of Nargis, huge amounts of aid funding flowed into the country, she said, money that ultimately "has a momentum of its own."
Countries set aside politics as AIDS gets more severe
By ASSOCIATED PRESS | Friday, July 31, 2009
YANGON, Myanmar - Shrunken to 30 pounds of skin and bones, Ma Moe could barely walk when she arrived on the doorstep of the clinic nearly two years ago. Her husband had died from AIDS complications three years earlier, and it was slowly killing her.
If not for the free medicine she receives, she would be dead, the 35-year-old widow said as she waited for her monthly visit. "I had no money, my house was destroyed by [Cyclone] Nargis, I had nowhere else to go."
The modest one-story wooden clinic, one of two dozen run by international aid group Doctors Without Borders, is on the front lines of Myanmar's struggle against HIV/AIDS, a disease that often spells a slow death sentence for Burmese because of a shortage of anti-retroviral medicines.
As foreign donors largely shunned this isolated military-run nation, its AIDS epidemic, one of the most serious in Asia, steadily worsened out of the spotlight.
But now Western governments and donors have begun reassessing their approach after years of tough sanctions failed to yield much progress.
The Global Fund for AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, a major international donor that pulled out in 2005, is considering returning to Myanmar, a decision that could inject millions of dollars in funding and triple the number of people getting life-saving medicine.
Donors have long feared that aid would only bolster the iron-hand rule of the military government. Myanmar receives only about $3 per capita in aid, compared with $23 for Vietnam and $50 for Laos.
An estimated 240,000 people are infected by HIV, which causes AIDS. Of those, about 76,000 are in need of the life-saving antiretroviral treatment, but less than a quarter of them - about 18,000 - are getting it. The lack of accessible treatment translates into about 25,000 deaths a year.
At $30 a month, roughly equal to the average monthly salary here, the cost for the medication is beyond the reach of many. A lucky few get it free from Doctors Without Borders, also known as Medecins Sans Frontieres, which provides drugs and treatment to about 12,000 people across the country. A handful of smaller nongovernmental organizations cover about 4,000 patients, while the government provides for about 1,800.
"There's such huge need but so little money from donors that we end up being the main provider of [anti-retroviral treatment]," said Luke Arend, the head of Doctors Without Borders in Myanmar. "It's probably the only place in the world where an NGO is effectively running the country's HIV program, as the national AIDS program has such limited funding. That's a sad state of affairs."
After years of silence and denial, the regime finally acknowledged the AIDS scourge in early 2000.
Some aid groups say privately that government health officials are now keenly aware of the problem but that the regime's priorities lie elsewhere. Myanmar, with one of the world's largest armies, spends the least amount of any country on its national health budget - just 0.3 percent of the gross domestic product, of which a small amount goes toward AIDS.
The lines start early outside the AIDS clinic set in the middle of farmland on the outskirts of Yangon. By midmorning, the waiting room is jammed with patients - mothers holding babies, young couples, men visibly frail and emaciated.
The anti-retroviral drugs have returned Mrs. Moe, the AIDS widow, to a visibly healthy glow. Her weight has rebounded to normal. Sitting in a small room off the main clinic, she talked candidly about the disease she didn't know existed until after her husband died in 2006.
"I was scared to take a blood test. I didn't know anything about AIDS," she said. "The doctors warned me ahead of time that if I had HIV, I might die.
"My health has gotten better, but I know in my mind I am still HIV positive. I know I can die without the drugs."
In mid-2007, overwhelmed and beyond its capacity, Doctors Without Borders temporarily stopped taking new patients for more than a year. The result was starkly painful, said Dr. Soe Yadanar, who has been working in the clinics for a decade.
"While they waited, some died," she said.
The situation could be very different by next year. The Global Fund, a U.N.-backed fund for three key diseases, is considering an application by Myanmar for $320 million in funding, with the goal of treating 42,000 new AIDS cases within five years. A final decision could come by this fall.
Increasingly, Western nations have realized that broad sanctions are hurting their interests because the military junta is prepared to forego any aid with political strings attached, according to a report last fall by the International Crisis Group.
The European Union, including Britain, has reviewed its assistance policy to Myanmar. Even the United States, perhaps the strongest supporter of ever-tightening aid restrictions, has said it is in the process of reviewing its overall Myanmar policy. During a trip to Asia earlier this year, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton spoke plainly: "Clearly, the path we have taken in imposing sanctions hasn't influenced the Burmese junta."
The shift marks a turnaround in the political climate from even a few years ago, when Myanmar was treated as a complete pariah state.
In 2005, the Global Fund abruptly announced that it was withdrawing from the country after less than a year. Spokesman Jon Liden said government restrictions barring access to certain areas of the country made it impossible to monitor how the $100 million in funding was being used.
"For us, there was no direct political considerations," he said. "We'd always be willing to provide funds regardless of the government, as long as we can ensure that it's being used effectively."
But other aid groups believed the decision was more likely the result of heavy political pressure exerted by the United States, the largest donor to the Global Fund and one that strongly opposed any kind of aid.
Regardless of the reasons, the government read it negatively, said Andrew Kirkwood, country director for Save the Children in Myanmar.
"It sent a message to the [Myanmar] government that humanitarian assistance was political, despite the rhetoric that it was not linked. It did a great deal of damage to the relationship between international aid groups and the regime," he said.
For humanitarian groups, the key shift came in the aftermath of last year's devastating Cyclone Nargis, which claimed at least 138,000 lives and was impossible for other nations and aid groups to ignore.
After an initial bottleneck by Myanmar's military leaders, aid groups have flooded into the country, said Choo Phuah, country director for the British-based International HIV/AIDS Alliance, which works with grass-roots organizations in Myanmar.
"I think Nargis did shift people's perspective about working in the country. Following the cyclone, many organizations started programs in the country," she said.
In the wake of Nargis, huge amounts of aid funding flowed into the country, she said, money that ultimately "has a momentum of its own."
*****************************************************
ASEAN ENERGY
Bangkok Post - Salween dam plan draws heavy flak
Writer: APINYA WIPATAYOTIN
Published: 31/07/2009 at 12:00 AM
Newspaper section: News
Environmental, social and human rights groups are slamming the adoption of plans for hydropower dams on the Salween River by Asean energy ministers.
The groups yesterday claimed the dams would cause massive damage to the river and communities that rely on it, lead to forced relocation and labour abuses, and would enrich Burma's military junta rather than Burmese people.
New regional energy plans including cooperation on multi-billion-baht hydropower development were agreed at the 27th Asean Energy Ministers Meeting which ended in Mandalay yesterday.
The ministers adopted the Thai-drafted Asean Plan of Action for Energy Cooperation 2010-1015, which is a guideline for supporting Asean energy cooperation such as the use of clean coal technologies and nuclear energy cooperation to generate power.
Thai Energy Minister Wannarat Channukul and representatives from the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand reportedly held talks with Burmese government officials about the development of the Hut Gyi hydropower dam on the Salween River, which forms part of the Thai-Burmese border.
The proposed dam is to be built opposite Mae Hong Son province. It will have an estimated capacity of up to 1,000 megawatts.
International environmental and human rights activists have long opposed the Hut Gyi dam project, saying it would cause grave damage to the river's ecology and lead to forced relocation and forced labour among Burmese ethnic minorities.
Non-government organisations, including the Burma Rivers Network (BRN) and OilWatch Southeast Asia, issued statements when the energy ministers meeting began on Tuesday calling for energy development projects in Burma to be terminated.
Burma's military regime is forging ahead with plans to export more energy to its neighbours. These include plans for more than 20 large hydroelectric dams to supply power to Thailand, China and the Asean power grid, BRN said.
"The revenue from the energy sector is the main source of income for the Burmese generals. It has been well documented that energy projects have caused environmental devastation and human rights abuses throughout the country," it said in a statement.
"Energy projects in Burma should be for the benefit of the Burmese people and not at their expense," said Sai Khur Hseng of the Ethnic Community Development Forum.
The Thai government has yet to make a decision on whether to go ahead with the Hut Gyi dam project pending a recommendation from a committee studying the impact of the mega-dam. It is due to report next month.
Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva set up the committee, which is made up of energy and environmental experts and economists, in April to help him make a decision on the controversial project.
Bangkok Post - Salween dam plan draws heavy flak
Writer: APINYA WIPATAYOTIN
Published: 31/07/2009 at 12:00 AM
Newspaper section: News
Environmental, social and human rights groups are slamming the adoption of plans for hydropower dams on the Salween River by Asean energy ministers.
The groups yesterday claimed the dams would cause massive damage to the river and communities that rely on it, lead to forced relocation and labour abuses, and would enrich Burma's military junta rather than Burmese people.
New regional energy plans including cooperation on multi-billion-baht hydropower development were agreed at the 27th Asean Energy Ministers Meeting which ended in Mandalay yesterday.
The ministers adopted the Thai-drafted Asean Plan of Action for Energy Cooperation 2010-1015, which is a guideline for supporting Asean energy cooperation such as the use of clean coal technologies and nuclear energy cooperation to generate power.
Thai Energy Minister Wannarat Channukul and representatives from the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand reportedly held talks with Burmese government officials about the development of the Hut Gyi hydropower dam on the Salween River, which forms part of the Thai-Burmese border.
The proposed dam is to be built opposite Mae Hong Son province. It will have an estimated capacity of up to 1,000 megawatts.
International environmental and human rights activists have long opposed the Hut Gyi dam project, saying it would cause grave damage to the river's ecology and lead to forced relocation and forced labour among Burmese ethnic minorities.
Non-government organisations, including the Burma Rivers Network (BRN) and OilWatch Southeast Asia, issued statements when the energy ministers meeting began on Tuesday calling for energy development projects in Burma to be terminated.
Burma's military regime is forging ahead with plans to export more energy to its neighbours. These include plans for more than 20 large hydroelectric dams to supply power to Thailand, China and the Asean power grid, BRN said.
"The revenue from the energy sector is the main source of income for the Burmese generals. It has been well documented that energy projects have caused environmental devastation and human rights abuses throughout the country," it said in a statement.
"Energy projects in Burma should be for the benefit of the Burmese people and not at their expense," said Sai Khur Hseng of the Ethnic Community Development Forum.
The Thai government has yet to make a decision on whether to go ahead with the Hut Gyi dam project pending a recommendation from a committee studying the impact of the mega-dam. It is due to report next month.
Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva set up the committee, which is made up of energy and environmental experts and economists, in April to help him make a decision on the controversial project.
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Business Mirror - Reject Burma fuel exports, Asean urged
Top News
Written by Estrella Torres / Reporter
Wednesday, 29 July 2009 23:31
CIVIL-SOCIETY groups in Burma and Southeast Asia are urging energy ministers of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) meeting in Mandalay to oppose new oil investments in Burma because they will only benefit the military junta and exclude the general population.
Burma is hosting the 27th Asean Ministers of Energy Meeting (Amem) in Mandalay that started on Monday, and the citizen groups criticized the unprecedented access to electricity of the meeting while the rest of the country continued to have serious and chronic power shortages.
Wong Aung from the Shwe Gas Movement said electricity consumption rates per capita in Burma are less than 5 percent of Thailand, but the military junta is still aiming to export even more energy resources to Burma’s neighbor countries.
“These include plans for over 20 large hydroelectric dams to power Thailand, China and Asean power grid, and trans-Burma oil and gas pipelines to China set to begin in September this year. The revenue from the energy sector is the main source of income for the Burmese generals,” said Aung in a statement issued by the Burma Partnership, a coalition of civil-society groups in the region pushing for democratization in Burma.
The international community has strongly condemned the continuing violations of the human rights of Burmese (renamed Myanmar by the generals) and the continued detention and new charges filed against Burma’s democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi.
Her trial court is set to issue a verdict on the new charges against the Nobel peace laureate on Friday in relation to alleged breach of rules of her detention after an unidentified American swam to her detention house uninvited.
The rights groups also said energy projects have caused environmental devastation and violations of human rights throughout the country.
“Increased fuel prices sparked the 2007 popular uprising in Burma and these energy export projects are making people increasingly angry. This Asean energy meeting will only further enrage the people of Burma. The generals are pocketing huge amounts from the projects but we are left in the dark,” said Aung.
Sai Khur Hseng of the Ethnic Community Development Forum said multibillion-dollar energy projects entered into by Burma’s generals never benefited the people who continue to suffer from various forms of atrocities.
“Energy projects in Burma should be for the benefit of Burmese people and not at their expense. Affected communities have the right to free and prior informed consent and should be protected through a democratically elected government, as well as international human rights and environment laws. Until then, the Asean ministers should refrain from investing in Burma,” said Khur Hseng.
He said exported natural gas from Burma’s controversial Yadana and Yetagun fields uels 20 percent of Thailand’s electricity needs while none fuels its own households.
At the same time, Chinese companies are ready to construct a 1,800-kilometer pipeline from the Shwe Gas Project in western Burma across the country to Kunming in China.
Top News
Written by Estrella Torres / Reporter
Wednesday, 29 July 2009 23:31
CIVIL-SOCIETY groups in Burma and Southeast Asia are urging energy ministers of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) meeting in Mandalay to oppose new oil investments in Burma because they will only benefit the military junta and exclude the general population.
Burma is hosting the 27th Asean Ministers of Energy Meeting (Amem) in Mandalay that started on Monday, and the citizen groups criticized the unprecedented access to electricity of the meeting while the rest of the country continued to have serious and chronic power shortages.
Wong Aung from the Shwe Gas Movement said electricity consumption rates per capita in Burma are less than 5 percent of Thailand, but the military junta is still aiming to export even more energy resources to Burma’s neighbor countries.
“These include plans for over 20 large hydroelectric dams to power Thailand, China and Asean power grid, and trans-Burma oil and gas pipelines to China set to begin in September this year. The revenue from the energy sector is the main source of income for the Burmese generals,” said Aung in a statement issued by the Burma Partnership, a coalition of civil-society groups in the region pushing for democratization in Burma.
The international community has strongly condemned the continuing violations of the human rights of Burmese (renamed Myanmar by the generals) and the continued detention and new charges filed against Burma’s democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi.
Her trial court is set to issue a verdict on the new charges against the Nobel peace laureate on Friday in relation to alleged breach of rules of her detention after an unidentified American swam to her detention house uninvited.
The rights groups also said energy projects have caused environmental devastation and violations of human rights throughout the country.
“Increased fuel prices sparked the 2007 popular uprising in Burma and these energy export projects are making people increasingly angry. This Asean energy meeting will only further enrage the people of Burma. The generals are pocketing huge amounts from the projects but we are left in the dark,” said Aung.
Sai Khur Hseng of the Ethnic Community Development Forum said multibillion-dollar energy projects entered into by Burma’s generals never benefited the people who continue to suffer from various forms of atrocities.
“Energy projects in Burma should be for the benefit of Burmese people and not at their expense. Affected communities have the right to free and prior informed consent and should be protected through a democratically elected government, as well as international human rights and environment laws. Until then, the Asean ministers should refrain from investing in Burma,” said Khur Hseng.
He said exported natural gas from Burma’s controversial Yadana and Yetagun fields uels 20 percent of Thailand’s electricity needs while none fuels its own households.
At the same time, Chinese companies are ready to construct a 1,800-kilometer pipeline from the Shwe Gas Project in western Burma across the country to Kunming in China.
*****************************************************
The Irrawaddy - 26 Dissidents Detained in Rangoon: AAPP
By WAI MOE, Friday, July 31, 2009
The Burmese military authorities arrested 26 pro-democracy activists on Thursday night in a move to pre-empt any public outrage concerning the postponement of a verdict against Nobel Peace Prize laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, said a Burmese human rights group.
Tate Naing, secretary of the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners (AAPP), a Burmese human rights group based on the Thai-Burmese border, told The Irrawaddy on Friday that Burmese authorities had arrested 26 dissidents since Thursday evening.
“We have learned that 28 people were arrested and that two activists among them were later released,” he said. “But the other 26 remain under arrest. Most of them are former political prisoners.”
The following morning (Friday), the Burmese judiciary postponed the verdict on Suu Kyi to August 11.
Later that day, Suu Kyi’s lawyer, Nyan Win, said at a press conference at the headquarters of the National League for Democracy (NLD) that the Rangoon Northern District Court had said that it decided to postpone the verdict because it is “reviewing the law.”
Among the 28 who were allegedly arrested during the overnight operation are elected representatives from the 1990 elections, including Tha Aung from Myothit Township and Nyunt Hlaing from Aunglan Township, as well as a well-known woman activist, Naw Ohn Hla.
Tate Naing said Naw Ohn Hla and Nyunt Hlaing were later released. However, he added that the number of arrests could rise as tensions increase among Suu Kyi’s supporters and security forces around Insein Prison, where the opposition leader has been detained since May 14.
“These arbitrary arrests show that the junta is scared of public outrage over the unjust trial of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi,” Tate Naing said.
The detention of the 26 dissidents adds to the more than 2,100 political prisoners already being held in Burma’s prisons. According to AAPP and other human rights groups, the number of political prisoners in Burma has doubled in the last two years.
The arrests came following calls from the international community for the junta to release Suu Kyi and all other political prisoners in Burma.
By WAI MOE, Friday, July 31, 2009
The Burmese military authorities arrested 26 pro-democracy activists on Thursday night in a move to pre-empt any public outrage concerning the postponement of a verdict against Nobel Peace Prize laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, said a Burmese human rights group.
Tate Naing, secretary of the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners (AAPP), a Burmese human rights group based on the Thai-Burmese border, told The Irrawaddy on Friday that Burmese authorities had arrested 26 dissidents since Thursday evening.
“We have learned that 28 people were arrested and that two activists among them were later released,” he said. “But the other 26 remain under arrest. Most of them are former political prisoners.”
The following morning (Friday), the Burmese judiciary postponed the verdict on Suu Kyi to August 11.
Later that day, Suu Kyi’s lawyer, Nyan Win, said at a press conference at the headquarters of the National League for Democracy (NLD) that the Rangoon Northern District Court had said that it decided to postpone the verdict because it is “reviewing the law.”
Among the 28 who were allegedly arrested during the overnight operation are elected representatives from the 1990 elections, including Tha Aung from Myothit Township and Nyunt Hlaing from Aunglan Township, as well as a well-known woman activist, Naw Ohn Hla.
Tate Naing said Naw Ohn Hla and Nyunt Hlaing were later released. However, he added that the number of arrests could rise as tensions increase among Suu Kyi’s supporters and security forces around Insein Prison, where the opposition leader has been detained since May 14.
“These arbitrary arrests show that the junta is scared of public outrage over the unjust trial of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi,” Tate Naing said.
The detention of the 26 dissidents adds to the more than 2,100 political prisoners already being held in Burma’s prisons. According to AAPP and other human rights groups, the number of political prisoners in Burma has doubled in the last two years.
The arrests came following calls from the international community for the junta to release Suu Kyi and all other political prisoners in Burma.
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The Irrawaddy - Burmese Regime Deliberately Depresses Economy
By SAW YAN NAING, Friday, July 31, 2009
Burma is ranked as one of the world’s most undeveloped countries because of intentional mismanagement by its own leaders, says a leading regional activist, Debbie Stothard, the coordinator of the Alternative Asean Network on Burma (Altsean).
Many developing countries in Southeast Asia such as Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand lack the abundant natural resources of Burma, Stothard noted. However, Burma is poorer than each of these neighboring countries.
Many Burma observers say the country has become the poorest country in region because the military regime lacks any interest in a plan to develop the economy and to integrate with the international community. One result is that almost all of Burma’s natural resources are sold to neighboring countries, say observers.
Stothard and economic specialist Sean Turnell of McQuarie University in Australia said Burma’s generals have completely lost touch with economic reality, making the country a “very, very high-risk environment” for potential foreign investors.
In the past, Burma was at the top of Southeast Asian countries in terms of economic development and natural resources and had one of the region’s best education systems, Stothard noted.
“People wanted to go to Burma to study because of its universities,” she said. “Think about that. But, in a few decades the Burmese regime has turned the situation completely around.”
Stothard said Burmese people are among the poorest in the world due to the military government’s policy of preventing the development of a functioning economy and a professional education system.
“The regime intentionally twists the education system and squeezes the ordinary people,” she said.
Due to the broken education system, many of the brightest young Burmese leave the country and many never return.
Stothard noted that many regional businesspeople would not dare to set up a business in Burma.
“The only companies that dare go into Burma are the ones who are going to export the natural resources. They just go in, grab the natural resources and run,” said Stothard.
Turnell said that the regime’s economic policies have done far more damage to the country’s economic prospects than global economic sanctions, put in place because of the regime’s anti-democratic policies and human rights abuses.
“The biggest sanction on Burma is the Burmese regime itself,” said Turnell, who added that the regime’s “determined mismanagement” of the country’s economy, including its refusal to respect property rights, is the main obstacle to Burma’s economic development.
Stothard said, “Singaporean businessmen have told me, those generals don’t know anything.
They don’t want to know anything. It is not about the generals being stupid. It is about generals who refuse to listen to the advice of their own technocrats.”
Burma has been designated one of the world’s least developed countries by the United Nations for more than 20 years. On a UN Web site, Burma is described as “a resource-rich country that suffers from government controls and abject rural poverty.”
A former Burmese intelligence official in exile, Maj Aung Lynn Htut, wrote in a recent assessment of the country that the junta’s chief, Snr-Gen Than Shwe, is adept at using dirty tricks as a result of his background in psychological warfare.
Aung Lynn Htut wrote, “He [Than Shwe] understands very well that if the public is allowed to have a better life it will gain a progressive outlook and become interested in politics.”
In the Human Development Index 2008 Update, Burma’s per capita GDP (US$881 in 2006) was ranked 163rd out of 178 countries in the world.
By SAW YAN NAING, Friday, July 31, 2009
Burma is ranked as one of the world’s most undeveloped countries because of intentional mismanagement by its own leaders, says a leading regional activist, Debbie Stothard, the coordinator of the Alternative Asean Network on Burma (Altsean).
Many developing countries in Southeast Asia such as Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand lack the abundant natural resources of Burma, Stothard noted. However, Burma is poorer than each of these neighboring countries.
Many Burma observers say the country has become the poorest country in region because the military regime lacks any interest in a plan to develop the economy and to integrate with the international community. One result is that almost all of Burma’s natural resources are sold to neighboring countries, say observers.
Stothard and economic specialist Sean Turnell of McQuarie University in Australia said Burma’s generals have completely lost touch with economic reality, making the country a “very, very high-risk environment” for potential foreign investors.
In the past, Burma was at the top of Southeast Asian countries in terms of economic development and natural resources and had one of the region’s best education systems, Stothard noted.
“People wanted to go to Burma to study because of its universities,” she said. “Think about that. But, in a few decades the Burmese regime has turned the situation completely around.”
Stothard said Burmese people are among the poorest in the world due to the military government’s policy of preventing the development of a functioning economy and a professional education system.
“The regime intentionally twists the education system and squeezes the ordinary people,” she said.
Due to the broken education system, many of the brightest young Burmese leave the country and many never return.
Stothard noted that many regional businesspeople would not dare to set up a business in Burma.
“The only companies that dare go into Burma are the ones who are going to export the natural resources. They just go in, grab the natural resources and run,” said Stothard.
Turnell said that the regime’s economic policies have done far more damage to the country’s economic prospects than global economic sanctions, put in place because of the regime’s anti-democratic policies and human rights abuses.
“The biggest sanction on Burma is the Burmese regime itself,” said Turnell, who added that the regime’s “determined mismanagement” of the country’s economy, including its refusal to respect property rights, is the main obstacle to Burma’s economic development.
Stothard said, “Singaporean businessmen have told me, those generals don’t know anything.
They don’t want to know anything. It is not about the generals being stupid. It is about generals who refuse to listen to the advice of their own technocrats.”
Burma has been designated one of the world’s least developed countries by the United Nations for more than 20 years. On a UN Web site, Burma is described as “a resource-rich country that suffers from government controls and abject rural poverty.”
A former Burmese intelligence official in exile, Maj Aung Lynn Htut, wrote in a recent assessment of the country that the junta’s chief, Snr-Gen Than Shwe, is adept at using dirty tricks as a result of his background in psychological warfare.
Aung Lynn Htut wrote, “He [Than Shwe] understands very well that if the public is allowed to have a better life it will gain a progressive outlook and become interested in politics.”
In the Human Development Index 2008 Update, Burma’s per capita GDP (US$881 in 2006) was ranked 163rd out of 178 countries in the world.
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Mizzima News - Ministry orders checks on “black listed” tourists
by Nem Davies
Friday, 31 July 2009 19:30
New Delhi (Mizzima) – Tour agencies have been directed by Burma’s Ministry of Hotel and Tourism to check tourists applying for ‘Arrival Visa’ with the list of people banned from entering the country.
“The people banned are among those ‘black listed’ and the list is with the Immigration Department,” Ohn Myint, Deputy Director at Ministry of Hotel and Tourism in Naypyitaw, told Mizzima.
The notice states that persons included in the ‘black list’ will not be issued ‘Arrival Visa’. Tour agencies as such are required to submit one of three forms to the Immigration Department in Rangoon six days in advance, in order to provide time for checking the list.
A director of a popular tour agency in Rangoon said the screening of ‘Arrival Visa’ is being done mainly to check people involved in politics.
“We have to submit the bio-data of tourists, who apply for ‘Arrival Visa’ to the Immigration Department. They [immigration] mainly check tourist’s into politics. The “black list” is with them and it is confidential,” the director told Mizzima.
Though tourists can apply for normal visas at respective Burmese embassies abroad, it is mandatory for tourists, who face time limits in applying for normal visas, to connect with tour agencies in Burma to apply for the ‘Arrival Visa’.
“For people, who do not have time to obtain a normal visa, authorities issue ‘Arrival Visa’ but they need to get in touch with tour companies before they come. Every tour agent takes care of his guests,” a director at another tour agency in Rangoon told Mizzima.
The ministry’s order on Thursday states that tour agents can enquire whether the list of their guests has been cleared by the Immigration Department. They have no right to question the decision of the Immigration rejecting a guest.
The order also said that the ‘Arrival Visa’ system has been introduced in order to make travelling to Burma easier and to provide maximum service to tourists. It is also to check that tour companies do not charge tourists extra for their services and prevent the companies from evading tax payment to the government, which is seven per cent.
“Tour agencies must understand that a country has the right to reject or welcome particular tourists, without giving any reason,” the order adds.
by Nem Davies
Friday, 31 July 2009 19:30
New Delhi (Mizzima) – Tour agencies have been directed by Burma’s Ministry of Hotel and Tourism to check tourists applying for ‘Arrival Visa’ with the list of people banned from entering the country.
“The people banned are among those ‘black listed’ and the list is with the Immigration Department,” Ohn Myint, Deputy Director at Ministry of Hotel and Tourism in Naypyitaw, told Mizzima.
The notice states that persons included in the ‘black list’ will not be issued ‘Arrival Visa’. Tour agencies as such are required to submit one of three forms to the Immigration Department in Rangoon six days in advance, in order to provide time for checking the list.
A director of a popular tour agency in Rangoon said the screening of ‘Arrival Visa’ is being done mainly to check people involved in politics.
“We have to submit the bio-data of tourists, who apply for ‘Arrival Visa’ to the Immigration Department. They [immigration] mainly check tourist’s into politics. The “black list” is with them and it is confidential,” the director told Mizzima.
Though tourists can apply for normal visas at respective Burmese embassies abroad, it is mandatory for tourists, who face time limits in applying for normal visas, to connect with tour agencies in Burma to apply for the ‘Arrival Visa’.
“For people, who do not have time to obtain a normal visa, authorities issue ‘Arrival Visa’ but they need to get in touch with tour companies before they come. Every tour agent takes care of his guests,” a director at another tour agency in Rangoon told Mizzima.
The ministry’s order on Thursday states that tour agents can enquire whether the list of their guests has been cleared by the Immigration Department. They have no right to question the decision of the Immigration rejecting a guest.
The order also said that the ‘Arrival Visa’ system has been introduced in order to make travelling to Burma easier and to provide maximum service to tourists. It is also to check that tour companies do not charge tourists extra for their services and prevent the companies from evading tax payment to the government, which is seven per cent.
“Tour agencies must understand that a country has the right to reject or welcome particular tourists, without giving any reason,” the order adds.
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Mizzima News - Editorial: End of the old man
Friday, 31 July 2009 20:10
The kangaroo court pretends there’s no problem in tackling the case of pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi but it had to postpone hearing dates without coming up with a sound reason. This reveals, though they have the upper hand, they are in a crisis as well.
The court fixed July 31 for pronouncing its judgment on the ‘National League for Democracy’ (NLD) party General Secretary Aung San Suu Kyi’s case in which she has been charged with violating her house arrest term by the police as the prosecutor. However, they had to postpone the hearing again on the orders of Naypyitaw, fixing the date for August 11.
The special court inside the Insein prison made similar postponements without prior notice four times since the trial started on May 18. The judges themselves might not know the reason behind these postponements.
The United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon had to intervene in this case, compelling him to visit Burma. Moreover, there has been a chorus of calls for the release of the Nobel Laureate globally. Though there is a debate on the effectiveness of international pressure these days, as for the isolated, self-conceited and aggressive junta leaders, such intervention is unbearable and intolerable.
It is not a coincidence that the junta requested Thailand’s Prime Minister to postpone his planned visit to Burma on July 31, on the pretext of dealing with internal politics, to two or three weeks later, through its ambassador in Bangkok.
The State Peace and Development Council is all too aware that supporters of Suu Kyi and hardcore activists will not stay passive with folded hands. They are not averse to arresting all of them, if necessary, over and above the 2100 political prisoners already languishing across jails in Burma, since it contrasts with the junta’s so-called seven-step roadmap to democracy.
In the meantime, the deterioration of the current situation for the paranoid and skeptical junta, ensconced behind the iron curtain, the classified report with the word ‘Secret’ on top of the paper, is being circulated wildly on the internet, which reveals there are loopholes in their inner security circle. These reports range from the visit of the third strongman of the junta’s military hierarchy Gen. Shwe Mann to communist North Korea, which is defying the international community with its nuclear arms race, to the meeting minutes between leaders of the junta and foreign countries.
In a quick response to these leaks, the junta retaliated with a combing operation in the Defence and Foreign Ministries besides resorting to cyber tracking and counter espionage.
On the other hand, the junta’s plan to transform ceasefire ethnic armed groups into the Border Guard Force (BGF) under the total control of their Armed Forces and disarming them is facing serious resistance and has been unsuccessful so far, as this plan lacks political guarantee and lack of mutual confidence.
The country’s economy is on the collapse mode in the face of the global economic crisis and the devastating Cyclone Nargis which left over 130,000 people dead. The economists estimate the country’s growth rate at zero percent.
Most of the generals in the top echelons of the junta whisper that dear leader Senior Gen. Than Shwe’s days are numbered and his fate is at its lowest ebb. To the superstitious and black magic believers among the generals, the collapse of ‘Danoke’ pagoda in Dala Township, which was repaired by first lady Kyaing Kyaing and her family, is a bad omen for this family.
The ‘Grand Strategy’ of transition to a puppet mixed administration of civilian and the military from the current military regime is uncertain and insecure.
It will be interesting to see how the psychological warfare savvy old man Than Shwe copes with the challenges faced on all fronts.
Friday, 31 July 2009 20:10
The kangaroo court pretends there’s no problem in tackling the case of pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi but it had to postpone hearing dates without coming up with a sound reason. This reveals, though they have the upper hand, they are in a crisis as well.
The court fixed July 31 for pronouncing its judgment on the ‘National League for Democracy’ (NLD) party General Secretary Aung San Suu Kyi’s case in which she has been charged with violating her house arrest term by the police as the prosecutor. However, they had to postpone the hearing again on the orders of Naypyitaw, fixing the date for August 11.
The special court inside the Insein prison made similar postponements without prior notice four times since the trial started on May 18. The judges themselves might not know the reason behind these postponements.
The United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon had to intervene in this case, compelling him to visit Burma. Moreover, there has been a chorus of calls for the release of the Nobel Laureate globally. Though there is a debate on the effectiveness of international pressure these days, as for the isolated, self-conceited and aggressive junta leaders, such intervention is unbearable and intolerable.
It is not a coincidence that the junta requested Thailand’s Prime Minister to postpone his planned visit to Burma on July 31, on the pretext of dealing with internal politics, to two or three weeks later, through its ambassador in Bangkok.
The State Peace and Development Council is all too aware that supporters of Suu Kyi and hardcore activists will not stay passive with folded hands. They are not averse to arresting all of them, if necessary, over and above the 2100 political prisoners already languishing across jails in Burma, since it contrasts with the junta’s so-called seven-step roadmap to democracy.
In the meantime, the deterioration of the current situation for the paranoid and skeptical junta, ensconced behind the iron curtain, the classified report with the word ‘Secret’ on top of the paper, is being circulated wildly on the internet, which reveals there are loopholes in their inner security circle. These reports range from the visit of the third strongman of the junta’s military hierarchy Gen. Shwe Mann to communist North Korea, which is defying the international community with its nuclear arms race, to the meeting minutes between leaders of the junta and foreign countries.
In a quick response to these leaks, the junta retaliated with a combing operation in the Defence and Foreign Ministries besides resorting to cyber tracking and counter espionage.
On the other hand, the junta’s plan to transform ceasefire ethnic armed groups into the Border Guard Force (BGF) under the total control of their Armed Forces and disarming them is facing serious resistance and has been unsuccessful so far, as this plan lacks political guarantee and lack of mutual confidence.
The country’s economy is on the collapse mode in the face of the global economic crisis and the devastating Cyclone Nargis which left over 130,000 people dead. The economists estimate the country’s growth rate at zero percent.
Most of the generals in the top echelons of the junta whisper that dear leader Senior Gen. Than Shwe’s days are numbered and his fate is at its lowest ebb. To the superstitious and black magic believers among the generals, the collapse of ‘Danoke’ pagoda in Dala Township, which was repaired by first lady Kyaing Kyaing and her family, is a bad omen for this family.
The ‘Grand Strategy’ of transition to a puppet mixed administration of civilian and the military from the current military regime is uncertain and insecure.
It will be interesting to see how the psychological warfare savvy old man Than Shwe copes with the challenges faced on all fronts.
*****************************************************
DVB News - With all deliberate delay
Francis Wade
July 31, 2009 (DVB)–A collective, but all-too familiar, sigh accompanied the announcement this morning that the verdict in Burma's trial of Aung San Suu Kyi has been postponed until mid-August.
It is a trial that has twisted and turned over the course of nearly three months, besieged by delays and digressions from the courtroom and flecked with the odd concession from the judges. It has successfully shouldered a visit by the UN Secretary General, brushed off fierce condemnation from world leaders and trampled over Burma’s own domestic laws.
Given the likelihood of the outcome, the trial could have been wrapped up in a matter of days. The verdict was likely drawn up the moment John Yettaw arrived back on the shores of Lake Inya in early May, but instead the old tactic of delay has reared its head again. Seasoned observers of the Burmese legal system are used to this sort of behaviour from the junta – some may see it as a tactical manouvre, while others point to a sadistic means of further punishing Suu Kyi, with the agony of the unknown still stretching out before her.
One hopes, however, that the lady who recently passed 5,000 days in detention is inured to such practices - indeed her lawyer Nyan Win said this morning that she was “not surprised” by the decision, and reports have said she is already choosing her reading list for the likely prison sentence.
But there is another reason for delaying the decision. The junta, in its desperate attempt to justify why Suu Kyi should be kept out of sight, has scoured the Burmese political and legal landscape for any pretext that would add weight to their case. They have spent the last three months looking for loopholes in their own laws that they can exploit to maintain the status quo, even if that means doctoring the constitution they carelessly rushed through last year. That the trial was a sham in the first place is not disputed; the junta knows that Yettaw’s visit was beyond Suu Kyi’s control. Indeed the sight of guards merely throwing stones at Yettaw as he approached the compound shows how far they were willing to go to deter someone heading towards incriminating Suu Kyi.
But the Burmese regime is fully aware that the eyes of the world are fixed firmly upon it, and this international attention is far from welcome. Outcry has reached fever pitch, and the junta now has to look towards dampening the impact of the final verdict. The US-based legal counsel for Suu Kyi, Jared Genser, believes that the delay could be “a smart move” by the government to cushion the blow, and extend the decision until the middle of August “when a lot of government and UN officials are going to be on vacation.” In this case, he said, it will remain to be seen whether, given that August is a slow news month, they’ll actually heighten expectations by the lack of other news, “or whether in fact they will succeed in driving this to some extent from the headlines”.
Another factor for the regime to contend with is the tricky question of what to do with Suu Kyi once the verdict is given. It is perhaps no coincidence that the house in which she has been kept in detention for 14 of the last 20 years, which she shared with her two caretakers and in which she was allowed room for meditation and a semblance of normality, is suddenly the subject of a legal battle over ownership. Suu Kyi’s adopted cousin, a retired military officer, claims ownership of a portion of the land, and has put it up for sale.
This follows an attempt by her estranged brother, who has been described by various Burmese opposition groups as a surrogate of the junta, to claim half-ownership of the home, with speculation that he would then sell this to the government. Thus it could be that the decision of Suu Kyi’s verdict is extended until the dispute is settled, leaving the court ostensibly no choice but to place her behind bars. In this outcome, the site that has become almost revered throughout Burma could fall to another vindictive court decision.
It’s all speculation, but that’s the best we can do at this moment. Who knows what the reclusive regime is hatching? Only last month there were rumours that she could be held in a military base outside of Rangoon, while other people have floated the prospect of a lengthy sentence behind bars. According to senior National League for Democracy member Win Tin, the junta’s posturing over the past three months means that the only conclusion will be a “prison outcome”.
Either way, Suu Kyi is said to be prepared for the worst, and so must we be. The junta are not concerned with alleviating her agony, which is excruciatingly protracted and intensified by the delay, but placating their demons, which leaves her at the mercy of whichever tactic comes next.
Francis Wade
July 31, 2009 (DVB)–A collective, but all-too familiar, sigh accompanied the announcement this morning that the verdict in Burma's trial of Aung San Suu Kyi has been postponed until mid-August.
It is a trial that has twisted and turned over the course of nearly three months, besieged by delays and digressions from the courtroom and flecked with the odd concession from the judges. It has successfully shouldered a visit by the UN Secretary General, brushed off fierce condemnation from world leaders and trampled over Burma’s own domestic laws.
Given the likelihood of the outcome, the trial could have been wrapped up in a matter of days. The verdict was likely drawn up the moment John Yettaw arrived back on the shores of Lake Inya in early May, but instead the old tactic of delay has reared its head again. Seasoned observers of the Burmese legal system are used to this sort of behaviour from the junta – some may see it as a tactical manouvre, while others point to a sadistic means of further punishing Suu Kyi, with the agony of the unknown still stretching out before her.
One hopes, however, that the lady who recently passed 5,000 days in detention is inured to such practices - indeed her lawyer Nyan Win said this morning that she was “not surprised” by the decision, and reports have said she is already choosing her reading list for the likely prison sentence.
But there is another reason for delaying the decision. The junta, in its desperate attempt to justify why Suu Kyi should be kept out of sight, has scoured the Burmese political and legal landscape for any pretext that would add weight to their case. They have spent the last three months looking for loopholes in their own laws that they can exploit to maintain the status quo, even if that means doctoring the constitution they carelessly rushed through last year. That the trial was a sham in the first place is not disputed; the junta knows that Yettaw’s visit was beyond Suu Kyi’s control. Indeed the sight of guards merely throwing stones at Yettaw as he approached the compound shows how far they were willing to go to deter someone heading towards incriminating Suu Kyi.
But the Burmese regime is fully aware that the eyes of the world are fixed firmly upon it, and this international attention is far from welcome. Outcry has reached fever pitch, and the junta now has to look towards dampening the impact of the final verdict. The US-based legal counsel for Suu Kyi, Jared Genser, believes that the delay could be “a smart move” by the government to cushion the blow, and extend the decision until the middle of August “when a lot of government and UN officials are going to be on vacation.” In this case, he said, it will remain to be seen whether, given that August is a slow news month, they’ll actually heighten expectations by the lack of other news, “or whether in fact they will succeed in driving this to some extent from the headlines”.
Another factor for the regime to contend with is the tricky question of what to do with Suu Kyi once the verdict is given. It is perhaps no coincidence that the house in which she has been kept in detention for 14 of the last 20 years, which she shared with her two caretakers and in which she was allowed room for meditation and a semblance of normality, is suddenly the subject of a legal battle over ownership. Suu Kyi’s adopted cousin, a retired military officer, claims ownership of a portion of the land, and has put it up for sale.
This follows an attempt by her estranged brother, who has been described by various Burmese opposition groups as a surrogate of the junta, to claim half-ownership of the home, with speculation that he would then sell this to the government. Thus it could be that the decision of Suu Kyi’s verdict is extended until the dispute is settled, leaving the court ostensibly no choice but to place her behind bars. In this outcome, the site that has become almost revered throughout Burma could fall to another vindictive court decision.
It’s all speculation, but that’s the best we can do at this moment. Who knows what the reclusive regime is hatching? Only last month there were rumours that she could be held in a military base outside of Rangoon, while other people have floated the prospect of a lengthy sentence behind bars. According to senior National League for Democracy member Win Tin, the junta’s posturing over the past three months means that the only conclusion will be a “prison outcome”.
Either way, Suu Kyi is said to be prepared for the worst, and so must we be. The junta are not concerned with alleviating her agony, which is excruciatingly protracted and intensified by the delay, but placating their demons, which leaves her at the mercy of whichever tactic comes next.
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