The Nation - EDITORIAL: Another UN visit, but what next for Burma?

The Nation - EDITORIAL: Another UN visit, but what next for Burma?
Published on February 4, 2009

The junta wants more aid money but still intends to retain power despite planned election

Jailed Burmese opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi's position is clear: UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon should not visit Burma if all political prisoners including herself are not released. She has been under house arrest for nearly 16 years and an estimated 3,200 political prisoners are in various jails throughout Burma. For the time being, a visit by Ban would give the wrong impression to the junta.

UN Special Envoy Ibrahim Gambari's trip to Burma at this crucial period is still significant. First, it allows the outside world to hear what Suu Kyi has to say about the current situation inside Burma. Her meeting with Gambari enables the UN envoy to relay her thoughts to the world community. Her appeal reflects the worsening human rights condition in Burma, especially since the September 2007 "Saffron Revolution". After the bloody crackdown, the regime imposed harsh jail sentences on those involved in the protests.

The regime is not letting down its guard. Indeed, the junta leaders are trying every possible means to pre-empt any challenge to their grip on power ahead of scheduled elections next year. Gambari's visit puts the UN closer to developments in Burma once again, although the junta obviously knows the scope and limit of the UN's power.

However, the regime needs to show some goodwill to Gambari so that future contacts are not to be ruled out. Ban would like to visit Burma if there is sufficient progress to warrant such a stopover. He will be in Bangkok for the UN-Asean summit, the date of which has yet to be decided, so he would also like to make the side-trip to Burma.

Gambari's visit is a good opportunity to get reactions from the Burmese junta on the post-Cyclone Nargis recovery effort. The present agreement for tripartite cooperation between the junta, Asean and the UN and its related agencies will run out in four months. To continue the international effort, the tripartite group must come to a new agreement on the scope and limit of its activities. It is clear that humanitarian organisations in the affected Irrawaddy Delta would like to stay on to continue their relief operations as they enter the phase of rehabilitation and recovery. But both Asean and the UN need further mandates for future post-Nargis programmes.

In the past year, Asean has taken the lead and instilled confidence among stakeholders that the international community can work with the Burmese regime. Credit should be given to Asean Secretary General Dr Surin Pitsuwan, who has initiated and coordinated regional and international efforts. However, Asean, which will discuss the post-Nargis issue later this month in Hua Hin, has not yet made a decision whether it will continue the humanitarian programmes. The grouping does not want to get involved in a new phase of post-Nargis assistance if there is no international cooperation. Asean is not going to shoulder that kind of mammoth task alone.

Despite the initial request by the Burmese junta for US$11-billion(Bt384.4 billion) worth of aid, the international community's response has been slow. According to the Asean Secretariat, 63 per cent of the UN's Revised Appeal of US$473 million has been raised. Apparently more money is needed if the tripartite group is going to remain in Burma. One of the reasons is the lack of transparency and governance. There are still many restrictions and limitations in Burma; thus a better code of conduct and access beyond the delta would be incentives to attract further funding.

The Burmese regime is playing a high-stakes game between the international desire to help and its own survival. General Than Shwe continues to live in his own world, cut off from the international community, and nobody near him will inform him of the reality his country is facing. Than Shwe and the other junta leaders know that the global economic crisis will force all countries to pay more attention to their own problems. But the Burmese leaders think they can muddle through, as they have done for past two decades. The scheduled election next year is just another means by which they will hang onto power.