The New Nation - Dealing with neighbour Myanmar

nternet Edition. December 26, 2008
The New Nation - Dealing with neighbour Myanmar
Abu Rushd

For a small country the best neighbor is a rich country with a small army. The most dangerous enemy is a poor country with a big army' - recent crisis of Bangladesh with Myanmar could be a right apprehension of Prof. G.B. Khanal's above statement made in one of his articles published in Newsweek during September 1989. It may be mentioned that being one of the least developed countries and governed by the military junta for a long time Myanmar is maintaining the 9th largest army of the world.

With a rich natural resource base, Myanmar is a country with considerable potential. However, more than five decades of political and armed conflict, combined with forced isolation and unsuccessful economic policies have significantly eroded socio -economic conditions in the country and led to its designation in 1987 as a "least developed country." Myanmar lags far behind its neighbors and ASEAN in economic and social development, with a Human Development Index (HDI) ranking of 129 out of 177 which went down to the ranking of 132 further by 2007. In 2004 Myanmar ranked 106 on the Gender - related Development Index (GDI) out of 146.

Myanmar is a country of 657,550 sq kms where total population is 48,379,000 as of 2006. GNI per capita during 2006 was 220 US$, life expectancy at birth is 61 and infant mortality rate (under 1) is 74. Central government expenditure from 1995-2005 allocated to health is 5%, to education is 15% and for defense is 22% (it was 19% in 2005) and the GDP - real growth rate is 3.8% (2007 est.). Reserve of foreign exchange and gold is only 2.262 billion US$ (2007 est.). Per capita (GDP nominal) is only 233 US $. By any standard Myanmar is one of the poorest nations in southeastern Asia, suffering from decades of stagnation, mismanagement and isolation. From 1962 onwards Myanmar has been ruled my military junta. Democratic rule ended in that country in 1962 when General Ne Win led a military coup d'etat. He ruled for nearly 26 years and pursued policies under the rubric of the Burmese Way to Socialism. In 1988, unrest over economic mismanagement and political oppression by the government led to widespread pro - democracy demonstrations throughout the country. Security forces killed thousands of demonstrators and general Saw Maung staged a coup d'etat and formed the State Law and Order Restoration Council - SLORC. Actually after 1962 Myanmar never had any taste of democracy till today.

Though in terms of governance and any related Human Development Index Myanmar is certainly a big country embedded with sheer poverty but with a huge military set up. A repressive military junta at the helm of the affairs along with a poor economic track record made this country more aggressive in outlook. Border clashes with Thailand and Bangladesh may supplement this arrogant nature.

When in 1991 Myanmar attacked and ransacked bordering Rejupara BOP, Bangladesh was put on a high military alert. Both the countries reached in a boiling point, nothing short of war hysteria. World powers might have wanted to have a limited war between a military ruled Myanmar and a newly reborn democratic country - Bangladesh. And so much of ground works were meticulously done. War clouds were visible everywhere. But thank God, sense of sanity prevailed; a major regional clash was somehow averted by the then newly elected BD government. Though during that fateful period a portion of the government quarter miscalculated about Myanmar's military strength and voiced for limited scale retaliation. It's true that in the late eighties Myanmar didn't have that a powerful military teeth to contain Bangladesh in an armed conflict. According to the data of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), Myanmar at that time had a total (army, navy, air force) of 186,000 personnel in the armed forces. Army was then divided into 8 regional commands which had less then two regiments of tanks. Navy had only 36 warships of different kinds of which maximum were of WWII vintage. Air Force could master only 20 obsolete aircrafts with no armed helicopter. On the contrary Bangladesh had a well trained 131,000 strong armed forces of which many of them were battle proven whether in 1971 war or in CHT. Armaments of Bangladesh were also relatively better and of modern nature. But once the war cloud evaporated Bangladesh failed to take any lesson from that incident where Myanmar junta analyzed every aspect and rapidly took necessary steps to fill the gap. From 1991 onward Myanmar didn't keep any stone unturned not only to increase its armed manpower but also acquired a huge number of relatively modern equipments.

Actually after the end of the Cold World , the trend in military strategy and national security agenda has been changed all over the world from high politics which emphasized issues of war, nuclear deterrence to low politics which emphasized the environment, economic development and natural resources. Despite of this global trend, the Myanmar regime increased military spending for land warfare, sea power and air power while other countries around her were trying to reduce. By any standard the defense sector of Myanmar has increased since 1990. This trend can easily indicate that the rise of military power in Myanmar can be assumed as a threat to its neighbor countries. Another IISS data shows that from 1987 to 2002 Thailand reduced its armed forces from 756,000 to 306,000. Another neighbor Laos reduced it from 55,000 to 29,000 and even in India number of military personnel was reduced from 1,462,000 - 1,298,000. But only Myanmar increased its strength from 186,000 to 444,000!

The above figures clearly show that only Myanmar has increased military power and arms racing compared to its neighboring countries. Nevertheless, increasing the military power also means increasing the military spending. In 1987 Myanmar spent 252.56 million US$ for defense which was increased to 555 million US$ by 2002. But in the other fields Myanmar remains as a backbencher till now. All the societal factors show how poorly this country is equipped to manage her other burning problems. Here comes the warning of Prof. Khanal. And Myanmar Junta obviously has forgotten that, 'Security means development. Security is not military hardware, though it may include it, security is not military force, though it may involve it, security is not traditional military activity, though it may encompass it. Security is development and without development there can be no security.'

In pen and paper US government has imposed a ban on armament export to Myanmar regime. To them short of a democratic system can't be accepted or expected! But in reality Myanmar is one of the big arms importer from the very friendly countries of USA. Even some sophisticated US armaments are also in their inventory! Already Israeli 5.56 mm MA- 1/MA-2/MA-3/MA-4/MA-11/MA-12 rifles are inducted as the standard small arms of Myanmar Army. M-845, P-155 mm and Soltam 155 mm Howitzers are in the service with Myanmar Artillery.

Some other sophisticated electronic equipment for Air Force is also bought from Israel. Israeli engineers we-re engaged to refurbish Chinese origin F-7s and these fighter aircrafts were to get Elta EL/M - 2032 air to air radar, Rafael Python Mk. III and Litening laser - designator pods. It is well assumed that without the blessing of USA Myanmar can't procure Israeli armaments. Recent reports indicate that they have even acquired UAVs ( Unmanned Air Vehicles) from Israel. Simultaneously they are procuring armaments and equipment both from Chinese and western sources like Russia, Ukraine, Poland, Switzerland and France. Many a times they imported western arms through Singapore. All other relevant data show how Myanmar Armed Forces are building their might through a well organized and calculated manner. Their effort in this regard must be saluted so far nationalism is concerned.

However we agree on this point that Myanmar is a close ally of China who is also our strategic partner and main source of arms. Not only the military of Myanmar but its government is having deep ties with China. Concerning Bay of Bengal and Malacca strait the very location of Myanmar has become strategically important for the world and regional powers. In the South of Bay of Bengal India has been maintaining a strong Naval - Air Base for a long time at Andaman- Nicobar Islands. Americans too are now a days trying to influence whole of Indian Ocean area utilizing these Indian bases. In other way these two islands are located just at the gateway to Malacca Strait. Considering this strategic scenario China certainly wants to get a privileged presence in the Bay of Bengal and towards Strait of Malacca. And Myanmar somehow fulfills her (China's) interest which of course nothing harmful for Bangladesh, rather this move can be termed as a positive factor which is related to strategic deterrent. At present Myanmar have established strong Naval and Air Force installations at their two islands namely Haingi and Coco. Chinese presence is also noted there substantially. To curb Indian-US nexus Myanmar- Chinese collaboration is no way detrimental to our national security.

Now question comes- is Myanmar our enemy? No - not at all. Both Bangladesh and Myanmar are close friends of China and thus these two neighborly countries do share common strategic overview. It is to be our own interest to look towards east more and more and consider Myanmar as our ally not as foe. There may be behind the door instigation from some world power to initiate hostility towards Myanmar where Bangladesh will be used as a launching base for proxy war on their behalf. We should think thousand times whether we will allow some body to involve us against any form of clashes with our eastern neighbor thus loosing long lasting friendship of China as well? It's a trap, no doubt in that.

Our national interest would be to maintain a good relation with Myanmar, may it be a military ruled country or disliked by some western stalwarts. We can't afford to alienate another neighbor when facing too many loggerheads with the other mighty one. But this doesn't necessarily mean that we should not maintain a minimum deterrent with Myanmar.

Rather all available data indicate that we are gradually becoming weaker than Myanmar day by day. We pray and hope our government will consider minimum possible need of our Armed Forces and allocate requisite budget which is so far very meager in respect of our adversaries.

In Early November Bangladesh had to deploy warships and land forces along its border with Myanmar in retaliation to an encroachment on its maritime zone. Actually Myan-mar's bid to explore oil and gas in a disputed area in the Bay of Bengal created the first major naval deployment in the bay over offshore oil and gas rights since 1972.

Bangladesh claims that exploration activities and placing a rig is not legitimate as it clearly impinged on its right to the Exclusive Economic Zone- EEZ and the continental shelf, as accorded by the United Nations Law of the Sea - UNCLOS. In this respect Bangladesh has yet to complete the delimitation of its maritime boundary. On the other hand Myanmar emphasized on equidistant principle. Basing on this, early in November South Korean company Daewoo which was detailed by the Myanmar government was given go ahead signal to place a rig in the disputed area. This move eventually led to a tension between two neighbors. Once Bangladesh Naval ships were dispatched, Myanmar took no time to send her warships in response. They also maneuvered Infantry and Artillery regiments along the border. Unmanned Air Vehicles were flown over the Bangladeshi ships and land border areas bringing the situation to a boiling point. Despite Bangladesh's multi - pronged diplomatic efforts involving China and S. Korea, Myanmar showed little interest to come to a negotiating term in the discussion table. And stand off remains unresolved. Even Myanmar junta dismissed Bangladesh's claims on the oil rich area as 'un acceptable' and vowed to continue exploration by any means. Though after hectic diplomatic move, S. Korean company agreed to move its rig and Bangladesh called back its naval ships, but deadlock remains. Bangladesh's efforts to solve the problem amicably failed to persuade the Myanmar authority to come to a negotiating term. Even bilateral talks first in Myanmar's new capital, Naypyidaw and then in Dhaka produced no positive results. Rather controversy triggered both the countries to deploy troops along the border near Myanmar's Rakhain state.

Whosoever may be the defaulter, Bangladesh can't escape responsibilities as Bangladesh failed to do the necessary survey and accumulate relevant data to complete the delimitation of its maritime boundary. Under UNCLOS, Bangladesh has to submit all the concerned reports/data for demarcation of maritime zone to UN by 2011. Whereas India and Myanmar complete the demarcation process by 2009.

In the meantime littoral neighbors of Bangladesh, India and Myanmar found significant amounts of hydrocarbons in 2005-2006 and demarcated their respective offshore gas fields as per the "equidistant" principle. In some areas, these demarcations overlap Bangladesh's share of the bay's gas fields.

In this respect Bangladesh has been claiming that both Myanmar and India had encroached 18,000 and 19,000 sq km, respectively, into Bangladesh's territorial waters. So, Myanmar is not the only claimant but India is also an actor in the Bay of Bengal of which Bangladesh is not willing to take any precautionary measures.

Understandably, the resource- rich Bay of Bengal has re-emerged as a theater of conflict, as littoral countries are increasingly engaged in harvesting hydrocarbons unilaterally: This is bound to trigger tension. Myanmar leased the present zone of contention, Block No AD-7, to South Korea's Daewoo International Corp in 2005. The company started explorations in the area in September but South Korea reportedly called it back following Bangladesh's protest.

Certainly Myanmar's recent overtures heightened tension in the region. But neither Myanmar nor Bangladesh can afford to go on a military solution both being close ally of China. It will not benefit any of them rather sour relations will encourage to draw some other's interference which will inevitably make the Bay of Bengal and surrounding areas more vulnerable. This tension again proved how scanty our defense preparedness is and how reluctant our administration and government machinery are to look after our national interest.